NJ’s third Monday in a row with high humidity, heavy rain, and flooding

Another Monday, another Flood Watch — third one in a row. The threat of thunderstorms returns to New Jersey Monday afternoon and evening, along with the threat for downpours. Localized areas could pick up multiple inches of rain in a short period of time, leading to rapid flooding of low-lying areas including roadways. Zooming out, there is a chance for a shower or thunderstorm in the forecast every day this week, although the stormiest days look to be Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. It's going to be a very warm and humid week, in the 80s today and tomorrow, then soaring into the 90s for Wednesday and beyond.

Monday NJ weather: Another Flood Watch

This forecast contains heat, humidity, and thunderstorms — mmmm, smells like summertime in New Jersey.

Monday begins with temperatures firmly in the 70s across New Jersey. It's warm and it's muggy.

Furthermore, a troublesome cluster of thunderstorms crashed into northern New Jersey early Monday morning. This rain had a history of flooding and severe weather problems through the Twin Tiers of northern Pennsylvania and southern New York. But since its arrival here, it has fizzled significantly, and it only is showing as spotty showers and thunderstorms now. So you may encounter a brief pocket of rain early on Monday, but nothing to write home about.

With clouds and occasional peeks of sun, high temperatures will reach the lower to mid 80s on Monday. You will be chewing through the humidity once again, of course.

The big concern will be a round of strong thunderstorms expected to blossom around mid Monday afternoon, starting around 2 or 3 p.m. Given the high humidity in the air, it should be no surprise that downpours and flooding are the big concern here.

A Flood Watch is in effect for all or part of 17 NJ counties from 2 p.m. Monday to 2 a.m. Tuesday. (Basically including all but the southern coast.) Multiple inches of rainfall over a short period of time may cause inundation of storm drains, leading to flooding of low-lying areas such as roads.

A watch is a formal heads-up that such conditions are possible. If a warning is issued, it means flooding is occurring or imminent. That is when you should take action and hunker down to the best of your ability, as conditions will be tricky if not downright dangerous.

If I had to guess, I would say there will be 2 or 3 pockets of 3 to 5 inches of rain between the I-78 and I-195 corridors Monday, give or take.

The threat of severe weather — specifically wind — is present, but it is relatively low. Best chance of some tree-downing gusts would be along the Delaware River in western New JErsey.

By Midnight Monday night, we should substantially be drying out. Overnight will stay sticky and steamy, with low temperatures in the lower 70s.

Tuesday NJ weather: Humid with spotty showers

Tuesday will be a calmer weather day, although do not expect total relief from mugginess nor raindrops.

Highs will reach the seasonable mid 80s, under partly sunny skies. We will probably see a few spotty showers around. Maybe even some rumbles of thunder. Especially in the southern half of the state. But the threat of big, bad severe weather or flooding seems minimal on Tuesday.

Wednesday NJ weather: Hot and stormy

I am talking a lot about thunderstorms in this article. But let's not ignore some significant heat building this week too.

Highs on Wednesday will push to about 90 degrees. Factor in the humidity, and the heat index ("feels like" or "apparent" temperature) could push upper 90s — that is quite stifling and uncomfortable, especially in urban areas.

Plus, another round of scattered thunderstorms is looking likely on Wednesday afternoon and evening. These are likely to have some teeth, in terms of severe/flooding potential. So once again, we'll be keeping eyes on the sky.

Thursday NJ weather: Another lull

Thursday will be another break in the stormy weather. But you will definitely be sweating.

Although there are some differences among model forecasts regarding the exact numbers, I am thinking Thursday will reach into the lower 90s for most of the state. Skies will feature a mix of sun and clouds.

An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible on Thursday. But it looks like one of the "less stormy" days of the week, overall.

Friday NJ weather: Cold front day

The week ends with the most promising potential for a cooldown we've seen in weeks. A cold front is set to arrive Friday afternoon with one more batch of widespread storms. Followed by a welcome — although brief — intrusion of a cooler, drier air mass.

Friday afternoon's thunderstorms are likely to contain gusty winds, heavy rain, and lots of lightning yet again. Hopefully the frontal passage is "clean" enough to sweep the storms out to sea by Friday night.

I do not want to dig too deeply into the weekend forecast just yet, because it is heavily dependent on the progression of Friday's front. If we do taste drier air, Saturday could be one of those "best of the entire summer" kind of days.

Current models favor another round of rain arriving on Sunday. But given it is seven days out, with multiple storms between now and then, such a specific call does not mean much at this point.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.