Finally a short break from the cold, watching a pair of snow chances

Happy weather rodent day — a.k.a. Groundhog Day. I'm calling the next few days a mini-warmup or mini-thaw, as temperatures climb into the lower 30s - New Jersey's warmest weather by far in a week and a half. Even though that is still quite a bit below normal highs for early February, the difference will be quite noticeable. And as a result, I have no problem calling today and tomorrow pleasant days. Our next chance of snow will come Wednesday morning, as a quick clipper system drops about an inch of fresh accumulation on central and southern New Jersey. Not a lot, but enough to cause some headaches as it falls during the AM rush.

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Monday NJ weather: Warmest day in a week and a half

I think most New Jerseyans are suffering from major cabin fever at this point, totally over the constant onslaught of cold and New Jersey's bleak landscape of snow and ice.

Here is a temporary break. It will not be warm. It will not be seasonable. It will not be springlike. And not everyone in New Jersey will even reach above the freezing mark.

But it will be a noticeable improvement. And we will see some good snow and ice melt, aided largely by abundant sunshine.

Monday is starting with temperatures in the teens. Highs should reach about 30 degrees by the afternoon. It will be sunny, but breezy. Wind chills will probably be in the 20s throughout the day. Still a bitter breeze, unfortunately.

There is one leftover remnant from this weekend's off-shore coastal storm. One more round of minor coastal flooding is expected Monday morning along the Jersey Shore. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for tidal waterways for high tide.

Monday night will be cold again, dipping into the teens. Watch out for black ice, as anything that melted during the day refreezes at night.

Tuesday NJ weather: Best shot at above-freezing

I can't find anything to complain about in Tuesday's daytime forecast, other than I wish the temperatures were about 10 degrees warmer.

Look for partly sunny skies, light winds, dry weather, and highs in the lower 30s. At least the southern half of New Jersey should reach just above freezing.

Wednesday NJ weather: Snowy AM commute?

There is one hiccup coming Wednesday morning, as a clipper system slides west-to-east across New Jersey. It is small and it is fast. But it will be enough to produce about a half-inch to an inch of snow accumulation, mainly for central and southern New Jersey.

The snowfall amount alone is not much at all. But the timing has me worried, as it will coincide with the morning commute. Any time we have to deal with reduced visibility and traction as New Jerseyans are trying to get to work and school could be problematic.

The rest of Wednesday will have residual clouds giving way to sunshine. I think we will have one more shot at lower 30s in the afternoon, before cooler air settles in.

Thursday NJ weather: Back to the chilly side

Thursday will be sunny, but cooler. Highs will scale back to the upper 20s. At least it will not be as cold as it was. A stiff breeze will remind you how chilly it is.

Friday could bring a temporary resurgence of 30s to New Jersey. As our next cold front approaches, a round of scattered snow showers are possible in the afternoon. Again, snow accumulations will be light — no more than a half-inch to an inch, or so. But if the wind kicks up and snow gets a bit squall-ish, there could be some trouble on the roads.

Speaking of trouble, I do not like how this weekend is looking. That cold front will open the door to some of the coldest air and coldest temperatures of the season so far. And that is really saying something!

Some models are pumping out some really painful numbers for Saturday. High temperatures in the single digits? Wind chills around 15 below zero? If the worst-case coldest scenarios for Saturday verify, it could be New Jersey's single coldest day in over 30 years (since 1994).

Sunday would not be much better, with highs in the teens.

Beyond that, I think the atmosphere becomes wavier and more active next week. That would allow for more fluctuations in temperature, alternating between warm and cold. But it would also allow for more frequent storm systems to come visit.

So... Despite what a few of those weather rodents had to say, winter ain't over yet, New Jersey. Not even close.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.