Hurricane Erin passes 350 miles off NJ coast Thursday: What to expect

The Bottom Line: Thursday is "Erin Day"

By now, hopefully you know that a powerful hurricane is flying by New Jersey Thursday. And hopefully you know that while weather impacts will be limited here in the Garden State, coastal impacts are going to be pretty serious. Particularly the threat for coastal flooding, which is clearly our top concern here.

As of 8 a.m. Thursday, Erin is centered just 330 miles southeast of Cape May, New Jersey. It will make its closest pass to the state through this afternoon. Currently a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph.

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By the Numbers: Serious Coastal Impacts

Thursday's weather impacts will be inclement, but not necessarily tropical or dangerous:

—Wind... Breezy inland, with gusts around 20 to 30 mph. Windy along the coast, with top gusts reaching 40+ mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect for coastal counties Thursday.

—Rain... Some drizzle and showers, but no more than a few hundredths of total rainfall.

—Severe Weather / Tornadoes... Highly unlikely.

But the coastal impacts here in New Jersey will be pretty serious:

—Storm Surge... 1 to 3 feet, causing minor (Delaware/Hudson Rivers) to moderate (most of the Jersey Shore) to spotty major (Cape May County) category tidal flooding. A Coastal Flood Warning and Coastal Flood Advisory have been posted for the affected areas.

—Wave Heights... 6 to 12 feet, causing dangerous rip currents and significant beach erosion. A High Surf Advisory has been issued.

Thursday NJ weather: Not nice, but not really tropical

We start Thursday with leftover patchy drizzle from Wednesday, which was a pretty soggy day overall. In addition, on the western edge of Hurricane Erin, a new batch of showers has moved on-shore. So it is a damp start to the day for most of New Jersey.

The brisk northeaster winds have already kicked up along the coast. And everyone in the state will see at least a "breezy" day. The fiercest 40+ mph gusts should be limited to the coastal plan — that is strong enough to blow around garbage cans, cause driving difficulties, bring down branches, and cause sporadic (not widespread) driving difficulties).

Otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy to overcast, with dry weather prevailing in the afternoon. I am putting high temperatures around 70 degrees. Pretty cool, especially at the Shore.

If you are going to go look at the incredible 6 to 12 foot waves hitting the beaches today, please be careful and be respectful of local residents. Stay out of the water, of course. And avoid high tide. Water levels will start to rise late this afternoon into dinnertime.

Thursday night NJ weather: Water rises, sky clears, wind calms

We will really be holding our breath this evening, as tide levels rise due to storm surge. High tide along the Atlantic Ocean is expected between 6 and 7 p.m. Back bays will crest a few hours later, around 9 or 10 p.m. Larger tidal tributaries like the Delaware River will peak even later, close to Midnight.

Surge amounts are forecast around 2 to 3 feet. Combined with a higher than usual astronomical tide due to the New Moon, and we could be dealing with some widespread water inundation issues. I'm talking about road closures, bridge closures, neighborhoods turning into puddles, etc. New Jersey's barrier islands are most vulnerable and will be most impacted.

As Erin rapidly shoots off to sea, New Jersey's skies will quickly clear and winds will calm overnight. Low temperatures will end up on the cool side, around the 60-degree mark.

Friday & Saturday NJ weather: Beautiful weather, angry ocean

Friday will be a beautiful day, a return of sunshine and warmth and low humidity. High temperatures will reach into the lower 80s. Awesome!

However, keep in mind the ocean will still be rough. Wave heights will probably end up in the 4 to 6 foot range. I suspect we will still have a high risk of rip currents posted for the Jersey Shore.

Tide levels will stay high on Friday too. Both the morning and evening high tide cycles will likely produce minor to moderate category coastal flooding.

Saturday's weather forecast also looks great. Mostly sunny and lower 80s again.

The ocean will be calmer. But wave heights may still peak around 4 feet. Hopefully we can change the flags from red to yellow at the beaches?

Some clouds will kick in on Sunday, with a nice warm breeze. There is a chance of a late-day shower.

The extended forecast shows quiet weather for next week. Temperatures will cool from the 80s on Monday to the 70s on Tuesday. Barring any tropical developments, I see no significant storm systems or temperature swings ahead for the Garden State.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.