Late October storm soaks NJ Thursday, Halloween dry but windy

It's time for another October storm. Thursday's best case scenario is for a wet and windy, inclement weather day. The worst case scenario is for flooding on area roads plus downed trees and power outages. We will see periods of rain and wind throughout the day. Wind gusts will likely peak around midday, around 30 to 40+ mph. The heaviest rain will come through Thursday afternoon, before tapering in the evening hours. Total rainfall will likely end up between 1 and 3 inches for most of the state, although locally higher amounts are possible. Halloween Friday will be completely dry, but even windier, with wind gusts pushing toward 50 mph. The first weekend of November will turn sunny, breezy, and seasonably cool.

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Thursday NJ weather: Wet and windy

Everyone in New Jersey has already gotten wet Thursday morning. Up to a half-inch of rain has fallen already, with wind gusts already pushing to 40 mph along the coast.

That first band of rain was just the appetizer course, with many more raindrops still to come throughout Thursday. While there may be lulls in the rain and wind, expect a generally not-nice, inclement day from start to finish. While this will not be a historic, catastrophic storm, there are some hazardous weather elements in play — so it is important to stay alert and vigilant and use extra caution here.

—Rain... The two big pushes of rain Thursday will come in the morning (ongoing, as of this writing) and in the afternoon (that will be the heaviest rain of the day). Rain will taper off, from southwest to northeast, through the evening hours. The entire state should be completely dry by Midnight, at the absolute latest. Total rainfall will probably end up around 1 to 3 inches for most places. Maybe a little less to the south and west. There could be locally higher amounts to the north and east. That is more than enough for ponding and flooding issues on area roadways — and that is my biggest concern for Thursday.

—Wind... It is already breezy, and wind gusts will probably peak around the midday hours Thursday. Top easterly gusts of 30 to 40+ mph are likely. (The plus indicates some higher gusts along the immediate coast.) That is not necessarily in the "damaging" category, but strong enough to bring down vulnerable trees and/or branches. And there could be sporadic (not widespread) power outages. A Wind Advisory has been issued for NJ's coastal counties until early Thursday afternoon.

—Coastal Flooding... One more round of tidal flooding is expected during Thursday afternoon's high tide cycle. Water levels will rise about a foot or two higher than usual, leading to minor category flooding. This translates to "the usual spots" of flooding along particularly vulnerable and/or low-lying areas along the Jersey Shore. A Coastal Flood Advisory continues until this evening for most Shore points. Never attempt to walk, drive, or swim through flooded areas — it is both dangerous and disgusting.

—Severe Weather... There will be enough energy and tropical moisture in our atmosphere Thursday to sustain some stronger embedded thunderstorm cells. This would be in the form of rumbles of thunder, strong outflow wind gusts, and maybe even an isolated tornado. Just something else to watch, especially in the mid to late afternoon hours as temperatures spike into the 60s in South Jersey.

Once the storm moves out, skies will start to clear overnight. Low temperatures will dip to around 50 degrees with a continuing breeze.

Friday NJ weather: Howling wind is a trick not a treat

Happy Halloween! Trick or treaters all over New Jersey will be overjoyed to hear that Friday will be a completely dry day. However, the weather will not be perfect, as winds may be even stronger after Thursday's storm than during it.

Expect a mix of sun and clouds throughout Friday. High temperatures will be limited to the mid 50s, as we return to the cool side of normal.

The strong winds will be blowing from the northwest this time of year. And I think top gusts statewide could peak over 40 mph. That will have costumes and decorations blowing around. And again, there will be the risk for downed branches and trees, along with some power outages. Be extra alert and cautious.

Saturday NJ weather: November starts with sunshine

Welcome to November! As we enter the new month, our atmosphere will simmer down, and we will enjoy a decent mid-fall weekend of weather. Definitely cool, but at least skies will be bright, weather will be dry, and winds will be calmer.

Having said that, I think Saturday will still be breezy, through at least the first half of the day. Look for mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 50s.

Sunday NJ weather: Calmer, seasonable weather resumes

Sunday will probably be slightly more pleasant, with sunshine, a light breeze, and highs near 60.

I had been watching a storm system for early next week, but it is now modeled to dive south of New Jersey. So we will keep mostly to partly sunny skies in the forecast through Monday and Election Day Tuesday with highs in the seasonable lower 60s.

Our next chance of rain would probably come in the second half of next week. The next couple of cooldowns could funnel in cold enough air to be talking about some limited wintry weather in northern New Jersey. But let's not get ahead of ourselves here — there is nothing definitive on the horizon at this time. And that's fine by me!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.