NJ weather: Heat and humidity will peak this weekend

The Bottom Line

Happy first day of summer! The Summer Solstice arrives at 4:50 p.m. Thursday, marking the longest day of the year. We will see just over 15 hours of daylight. (Of course, it is all downhill from here until the Winter Solstice in December!)

This will be heat wave day #4 for New Jersey. And we are only halfway through, if that.

In my weather forecasts, I try to differentiate among three levels of heat:
—Regular summertime heat, in the 80s.
—Unseasonable heat, pushing into the 90s, like this week so far.
—Dangerous heat, when that dreaded heat index flirts with 100-plus degrees.

We could head into the "danger zone" this weekend. As humidity increases, overnight lows will not crash below 70 degrees — making things much more uncomfortable overall. Sunday is now looking like the most uncomfortable and potentially dangerous day of this heat wave.

While Thursday stays completely dry again, a few showers and thunderstorms may pop on any of the upcoming days.

Temporary relief from heat and humidity is set to arrive early next week.

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Thursday

Yet again, we are treated to a fairly comfortable morning, with temperatures mainly in the 60s early on.

That will not last long, of course, as temperatures start to soar by mid-morning. High temperatures are forecast to reach about 90 to 95 degrees across most of New Jersey. A Heat Advisory and Air Quality Alert continue.

One very popular place to beat the heat this week has been the Jersey Shore, where temperatures are upwards of 15 to 20 degrees cooler than inland areas. Highs at the beaches should end up on either side of 80 degrees. There is an elevated risk of rip currents once again.

Humidity levels on Thursday will remain manageable, with dew points in the 60s. And rain chances are nil.

Thursday night will be the last "comfortable" night in this series, as temperatures dip into the upper 60s (away from urban and coastal areas).

Friday

Friday will be another hot day, with inland highs in the lower to mid 90s. Skies look quite sunny, adding extra reason to take care of yourself in the sweltering, summery weather.

One new addition: A thunderstorm may clip through northern New Jersey late-day Friday. Latest model guidance suggests this rain chance is very limited. But worth mentioning. Especially because any storm that does develop is likely to be strong or severe.

Saturday

This weekend, we will tap into a slightly more humid pocket of air, making the heat even more uncomfortable.

You will feel that starting Saturday morning, as we start the day in the 70s rather than the 60s. Saturday afternoon will bring high temps in the lower 90s, with a mix of sun and clouds.

There is a slightly better chance for some popup thunderstorms Saturday late afternoon and evening. Very much hit-or-miss type stuff. But once again, localized downpours and gusty winds will be concerns. And this time around, anyone in the state could see a brief storm.

Sunday

It is now looking like Sunday will be the steamiest and most uncomfortable day of this stretch. With high temperatures reaching the mid 90s and dew points at or above 70, the heat index may crawl above 100 — into the "danger zone". The air is going to be thick and ferociously hot — you really have to take care of yourself in such conditions.

I do believe the ocean influence will keep the Jersey Shore cooler through this weekend. But the sea breeze may be less prominent on Sunday, allowing mainland beaches to at least reach well into the sticky 80s.

Finally, starting late Sunday afternoon, we will have to watch the skies for a round of thunderstorms. This could be the most widespread rain of the bunch — it will not last long, but again some downpours and wind gusts are possible. Along with lots of lightning which, by definition, makes every thunderstorm dangerous.

The Extended Forecast

Best case scenario for early next week: We transition from 'hot' to 'very warm' for a day or two, before much more comfortable conditions ensue late week.

While Monday will probably still hit 90 degrees, a weak cold front will knock back humidity levels again Monday night.

We have a shot at not reaching 90 on Tuesday. But don't count on it.

Wednesday looks hot and stormy.

And then long-range models show some real relief arriving for the second half of next week. We're talking low humidity, bright skies, dry weather, and seasoable highs in the lower-mid 80s. That would be a fantastic trend heading into the final weekend of June.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.