Six days of sunshine for NJ, warming up this weekend

The Bottom Line

The big weather news over the last 24 hours: A significant increase in the drought level for New Jersey. As of Thursday morning's Drought Monitor update, 100% of the state is now classified as "Abnormally Dry". About 60% of New Jersey is now officially in at least "Moderate Drought". And just over 12% of NJ is in "Severe Drought". It should not come as a surprise, as both September and October have been very dry around here.

New Jersey has declared a Drought Watch due to the dry conditions and dry forecast. Voluntary water restrictions are now in place, as agricultural, hydrological, and fire danger concerns continue to grow.

On the flip side, dry weather is pleasant weather. While temperatures have been stuck on the cool side of normal this week, a warmup kicks in starting Friday. And yes, we are looking at six consecutive days of sunshine and mild/warm temperatures.

New Jersey's next weathermaker and next chance of rain will not be until Thursday, at the earliest. Even that will be spotty to scattered showers, at best.

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Friday

There is one concerning alert posted for Friday, but it has nothing to do with the weather.

A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the Jersey Shore during Friday morning's high tide cycle. Minor category flooding is expected along tidal waterways. There are no storms nearby and hardly any wind. This is literally "sunny day flooding," caused by the full moon phase and rising sea levels.

Watch out for big puddles. And never attempt to drive, swim, or walk through flooded areas.

Weatherwise, there is nothing going on, with a big dome of high pressure firmly in control of our atmosphere.

Friday morning is chilly, although not as cold as earlier this week. Temperatures are starting the day mainly in the 40s. There are some pockets of frosty 30s around.

High temperatures will return to seasonable, near-normal levels Friday afternoon. It will be about 5 degrees warmer than Thursday, as thermometers rise to about 65 to 70 degrees.

Expect sunny skies and some of the driest air of the season so far throughout Friday. (Chapstick alert!) We are staying completely dry. There will be a noticeable breeze at times.

After sunset, temperatures will drop quickly. The vast majority of New Jersey will avoid a frost — that will be true for the next week or so. There will be some variety in temperatures by Sunday morning, ranging from upper 30s in NW NJ and the Pinelands, to the mid 40s for most of the state, to around 50 degrees for insulated urban centers and the immediate coast.

Saturday

A fantastic start to the weekend. Saturday will be sunny and mild. High temperatures will reach about 70 degrees.

Sunday

Even more sunshine. Even warmer. Highs will be closer to 75 degrees.

Monday

I think we can safely call early next week "very warm". Especially since temperatures will be closer to record highs than normal highs.

Monday will top out around 75 to 80 degrees. Again with mostly sunny skies with low humidity and barely a breeze. Zero chance of rain.

The Extended Forecast

Tuesday will be very similar to Monday, bright and warm, flirting with 80 degrees.

A little shift in air masses will bring a slight cooldown into Wednesday. But we're still looking at above-normal 70s, with plentiful sunshine.

A cold front is forecast to pass through New Jersey late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Current models suggest spotty to scattered showers could drop a tenth of an inch of rainfall over New Jersey — that is hardly anything.

However, that front will knock back temperatures heading into late next week. Thermometers look to fall back to the lower 60s for Thursday and Friday.

If we see any substantial rain, it would not be until the closing days of October, a full week and a half away. It would have to be a lot of rain — multiple inches — to close the mounting rainfall deficit since Labor Day. Unfortunately, I sense that means the drought spiral is going to get worse before it gets better.

Have a great weekend!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.