One more unseasonably cool day for NJ, more dry weather ahead

The Bottom Line

There are actual raindrops falling over New Jersey this morning!

OK, don't get too excited. We're talking sprinkles — which are limited to the immediate coast, and may not even reach the ground.

If this coastal storm system tracked about 300 miles farther west, New Jersey would pick up a wonderfully welcome soaking. But high pressure and dry air are still firmly in control of our atmosphere, steering storm systems and substantial rain away.

Aside from clouds and sprinkles along the southern coast Thursday, there's really not much going on in our weather forecast here. Thursday's high temperatures will remain below normal for the third day in a row. But a warmup kicks in Friday, pushing temps into the 60s and the 70s by the end of the weekend.

When is New Jersey's next chance of rain? A week away, at the earliest.

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Thursday

We actually have a storm system to talk about, passing just southeast of New Jersey. There have been some spotty sprinkles on radar along New Jersey's southern coast early Thursday morning. But I am doubtful that many of those raindrops are making it to the ground, given their light intensity and our dry air.

That coastal storm will keep southern and coastal New Jersey partly to mostly cloudy throughout Thursday. But most of the state will bask in sunshine once again.

Meanwhile, we face one more unseasonably cool day, where temperatures will be more typical of mid-November than mid-October.

It has been a cold morning in northwestern New Jersey, with lower 30s and a freeze in many spots around Sussex, Warren, Morris, Hunterdon, and Somerset counties. Most of the state is closer to 40 degrees — definitely still "jacket weather".

HIgh temperatures Thursday afternoon will hit about 60 degrees. Not bad, especially with a light breeze and plentiful sunshine.

Thursday night will not be quite as cold as the night before, as low temps dip into the lower 40s on average. A frost/freeze is still possible in only the coldest corners of the state.

Friday

Let the warmup begin. A period of tranquil, dry, sunny weather kicks off on Friday too.

Friday might be a little breezy to start. Then, enjoy sunny skies and the return of seasonable temperatures. Highs will reach the mid to upper 60s. I would not rule out a couple of 70-degree readings somewhere in NJ.

Saturday

Sunny. Dry. Mild.

All around a beautiful day.

High temperatures will warm to around 70 degrees.

Sunday

Mostly sunny. Dry. Warm.

Highs 70 to 75 degrees.

That is it.

Monday & Beyond

Our next warmup will climax early next week, as high temperatures for both Monday and Tuesday will aim for 75 to 80 degrees. Once again, skies look sunny and our weather stays completely dry.

Some clouds may creep in Wednesday, but temperatures stay on the mild side in the 70s.

Long-range models are showing a cold front arriving next Thursday morning — exactly one week away. That is our next chance of a brief rain shower. Far from a droughtbuster, unfortunately.

That frontal boundary will likely knock back temperatures to near-normal levels for the final weekend of October. The next next opportunity for rain will come in the closing days of the month — but that is far from a guarantee, given that we're looking two weeks away.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.