Flip-flopping weather for NJ this week: From dry to damp, warm to cool

The new workweek begins with one more pleasant, mild day. With increasing clouds, it will not be quite as warm as Sunday. But highs in the upper 70s are right on the seasonal normals for mid-September, so it is still fair to call it a pleasant day overall. A storm system off the coast of North Carolina will spit some energy and moisture toward New Jersey, leading to several waves of spotty showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Rainfall will be unimpressive - totaling about a quarter-inch to half-inch in South Jersey. At the very least, it will turn unsettled through midweek, cloudy and cooler (~70) and damp at times. Sunshine and warm weather (80s) return for Thursday and Friday.

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Monday NJ weather: One more mild day

After another spectacular weekend of sunshine and 80+ degree temperatures, our weather is about to take another turn downhill. An area of low pressure — a storm system — spinning off the coast of North Carolina will throw some energy and moisture toward New Jersey. It will be just enough to bring clouds and showers our way. Translation: Another round of unsettled weather, but nothing dangerous or overly impactful.

Monday should be nice overall, especially in the morning. Scattered clouds will thicken up throughout the day, becoming mostly cloudy by this evening. It will be somewhat sticky, with a light breeze out of the east at 10 to 15 mph.

Morning temperatures are hovering around 60 degrees. Afternoon highs will reach about 75 to 80 degrees. That is very close to normal for the midpoint of September — can't complain about that.

I am keeping a dry forecast for the daytime hours Monday. A sprinkle may end up clipping the southern coast Monday evening. Fog is possible Monday night too. Low temperatures will descend to around the 60-degree mark once again.

Tuesday NJ weather: Clouds and raindrops

Tuesday will be a different weather day. It will be cloudy and cooler, with high temperatures no better than the lower 70s. And everyone will get wet eventually.

One or two waves of spotty showers will travel from south to north as the day goes on. South Jersey will get wet starting in the morning. North Jersey probably stays dry until the afternoon and evening hours. There is the possibility of a pocket of steadier rain and/or rumble of thunder late-day.

Wednesday NJ weather: More spotty showers

That storm system will still be spinning off the coast, so another round of clouds and spotty raindrops is possible, especially through the first half of the day.

Once again, temperatures on Wednesday will go nowhere, reaching about 70 degrees at best.

Thursday NJ weather: Sunny and warm

On Thursday, skies will clear to sunshine by midday. And temperatures will respond nicely, expected to warm into the lower 80s by the afternoon. It should be a fast return to very nice, summer-ish weather.

Friday looks similar, mostly sunny and breezy with highs potentially in the mid 80s. That is definitely warm!

The forecast beyond Friday gets murky, as forecast model solutions diverge significantly. The GFS favors a strong cold front delivering cooler, drier air for the weekend. But the European model keeps things warm and beachy. I'd favor the cooler solution at this point, but let's see how things shake out over the next day or two.

Also, there is a tropical wave way out in the eastern Atlantic that is being closely monitored. Social media-rologists are already going nuts about outlier models showing it in the western Atlantic about 10 days from now. It's all unnecessary hype. Just ignore that stupidity until it becomes an actual threat.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.