The Bottom Line

The daily weather flip-flops continue. While Wednesday was a weirdly warm and windy day, New Jersey returns to the cold side of normal on Thursday. Feeling much more January-ish, it will only be a one-day cold snap this time around.

Our next storm system arrives on Friday. And it still looks like a much needed rainmaker for the Garden State. There is an opportunity for wintry mix and icy spots in the morning. And then possibly some gusty winds later on.

Friday is the one and only truly inclement, active weather day in this forecast. Things calm down again with seasonable temperatures through the first weekend of February.

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Thursday

Overall, Thursday will be a quiet weather day. Just chilly.

Cold air has temporarily returned to New Jersey, although Thursday will not be as frigid as last week. (Accuweather)
Cold air has temporarily returned to New Jersey, although Thursday will not be as frigid as last week. (Accuweather)
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We are starting with temperatures mainly in the 20s Thursday morning — typical for late January. And highs will only reach the mid to upper 30s — a few degrees below normal for this time of year.

The wind will not be nearly as ferocious as it was on Wednesday. But we could still hover in the "breezy" category at times through the day. Enough to potentially keep wind chills in the 20s.

Thursday's temperatures will be almost 20 degrees colder than Wednesday's, only peaking in the 30s. (College of DuPage Meteorology)
Thursday's temperatures will be almost 20 degrees colder than Wednesday's, only peaking in the 30s. (College of DuPage Meteorology)
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Expect good sunshine through about midday, before clouds increase Thursday afternoon.

Temperatures Thursday night will dip into the lower-mid 30s. But thermometers will then likely rise a bit overnight, as our next storm system approaches from the southwest.

Friday

Cloudy and wet. While it may not rain all day, you will be reaching for the umbrella and windshield wipers often.

Friday's storm system will bring rain and limited icing to New Jersey. (Accuweather)
Friday's storm system will bring rain and limited icing to New Jersey. (Accuweather)
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Here's the general timeline. Scattered rain will push into southwestern New Jersey around 3 a.m., spreading throughout the state by 6 a.m. The steadiest, heaviest rain of the day will kick in through the afternoon and early evening hours — let's say Noon to 6 p.m. And then rainfall will wrap-up by late evening, with final raindrops likely falling in New Jersey by Midnight.

The NAM model forecast for late Friday morning shows all green across New Jersey. Plain rain. (College of DuPage Meteorology)
The NAM model forecast for late Friday morning shows all green across New Jersey. Plain rain. (College of DuPage Meteorology)
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Total rainfall will probably end up between a half-inch and an inch for most of the state, with the highest totals to the south. It is much-needed rain, given our continuing drought concerns. It has been a very dry month so far — this will double or even triple our meager January monthly precipitation total.

High temperatures will range from the upper 30s to the north, to the lower 50s to the south. All above freezing, as the storm system carries in warmer air — that's why Friday is wet, not wintry.

There are two special concerns for Friday's storm that warrant a raised eyebrow.

First, the ground and air may be cold enough at onset to support some wintry mix to the north and west. The biggest concern is for freezing rain — remember, that is liquid rain that freezes on contact with a cold surface, making for a very slippery situation. We will have to watch conditions along and north of Interstate 78 carefully through mid-morning Friday. A Winter Weather Advisory covers Sussex, Warren, and Morris counties from 2 a.m. to 9 p.m. — not for snow, but rather cautioning that a glaze of ice is possible.

The chance of wintry mix — specifically freezing rain — looks to be limited to the northern third of New Jersey, approximately north of I-78. (Accuweather)
The chance of wintry mix — specifically freezing rain — looks to be limited to the northern third of New Jersey, approximately north of I-78. (Accuweather)
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Second, as the core of this low pressure area makes its closest pass to New Jersey Thursday afternoon and evening, some gusty wind may mix down to the surface. Maybe some rumbles of thunder too. This threat would be isolated, and mainly a southern NJ concern.

Saturday

Our atmosphere simmers down as we begin the month of February on Saturday.

Skies should quickly clear to sunshine Saturday morning, with a chilly breeze blowing out of the northwest.

Forecast high temperatures are in the lower 40s — pretty typical for early February. You can't complain too much about that — it will not be a big, bad, dramatic arctic blast this time around.

Sunday

On Sunday, New Jersey may get clipped by a weak impulse passing well to our north. If it comes close enough and if the air is not too dry, we could see a few afternoon showers over New Jersey. Most likely snow showers, given high temperatures in the upper 30s, but little to no accumulation is expected.

Otherwise, Sunday will be mostly cloudy and calm.

The Extended Forecast

I did make a note on my forecast worksheet that the temperature forecast for next week is highly uncertain at this point. But the general trend is for a mild Monday, in the 50s. Then more seasonable 40-ish for Tuesday and beyond.

Models are latching onto another storm system arriving in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. There are multiple scenarios on the table, ranging from rain only to accumulating snow. At six days out, we can really just say the chance of a storm is there. As always, the forecast will become more confident, more specific, and more actionable as it gets closer.

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Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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