Nice weather continues for NJ, on-shore breeze keeps beaches cool
The Bottom Line
Monday was a pleasant day. And Tuesday is shaping up nicely too. A broad dome of high pressure is spinning over eastern Canada, in a clockwise direction. That puts New Jersey under the influence of an east-southeast flow. That is an on-shore breeze.
So temperatures will end up cooler than normal Tuesday, especially at the Jersey Shore. Wednesday will be a warmer day. There is a limited chance for raindrops Wednesday evening, as a cold front slides through. And then our weather turns cooler and drier for Thursday and Friday.
Of course, all eyes are on the big Memorial Day Weekend forecast. You can ignore the "doom and gloom" forecasts that some are throwing out there — I am increasingly confident that the weekend will not be a washout. Yes, there will be some showers around. The challenge is figuring out the timing and spread of potential rounds of rain. That will also have an impact on temperatures — will the holiday weekend be springlike, summerlike, or a little bit of both?
Starting off this Tuesday morning, temperatures are on either side of 50 degrees. I have seen reports of light fog and even spotty drizzle along the coast — that will fade by mid to late morning, 11 a.m. at the latest.
We should see good pops of sunshine, mixed with clouds Tuesday. High temperatures for most of the state will end up near 70 degrees.
Under the influence of an on-shore breeze, coastal counties will be much cooler. Possibly only touching 60 degrees on barrier islands. Not exactly great beach weather. (By the way, there is a "Moderate" risk of dangerous rip currents developing at the Jersey Shore Tuesday.)
Tuesday stays dry and winds will stay light. Both tree pollen and grass pollen counts remain in the "high" range. And there are still abundant smoke particles in our upper atmosphere, stemming from wildfires in western Canada. That will make for a hazy sky at times, along with vivid sunrises and sunsets.
Tuesday night looks quiet and clear. Lows will once again dip to around the 50 degree marek.
Wednesday looks great overall, although we have to talk about the arrival of a cold front at night.
During the day Wednesday, we should see lots of sunshine. That will help inland high temperatures climb into the mid 70s. (At least one forecast models pops out an 80.) Once again, the beaches will be much cooler, near 60.
Clouds will start to fill in Wednesday afternoon. The breeze will become stronger late-day too, gusting over 20 mph.
Showers will likely enter northwestern New Jersey around the late afternoon to early evening time frame. Around dinnertime. There could be a rumble of thunder or small pocket of moderate-heavy rain, but severe weather is not expected.
As the cold front drives rain south and east, it is going to be fighting some relatively dry air. So it looks like raindrops will dissipate (fizzle out) before reaching the coast. That is why I have only included a "slight chance" of a shower for places like Trenton, Belmar, Toms River, Camden, and Atlantic City. All rain should be wrapped up by Midnight Wednesday.
A cooler air mass returns to New Jersey. So Thursday's temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler than Wednesday's. Highs will only reach the mid 60s or so.
Other than that, it will be one of those "refreshing" spring days, with plenty of sunshine and a cool breeze.
I foresee no problems for Friday. Which is good news since it will be a holiday weekend for many. Expect partly cloudy skies, dry weather, light winds, and inland highs in the lower 70s.
The Memorial Day Weekend
Our weather setup for the holiday weekend is still a tricky one. A coastal low (storm system) approaching from the south will be countered by high pressure (sinking air) to the north.
At the moment, our forecast has trended drier for the weekend. Models show that system getting "stuck" over the Carolinas, rather than soaking us.
The favored solution still shows some showers over New Jersey — mainly from late Saturday to early Sunday, and then again late-day Monday. But I am becoming increasingly confident this weekend will not be a washout.
Long-range models do have differing opinions on temperatures. The GFS favors 70-ish, while the Euro pushes out some 80s. The truth is probably in the middle, which would be seasonable — typical for late May.
As I have been promoting, we will be able to piece together more confident details in the coming days. Specifically about the timing, intensity, and spread and potential rain. And about temperatures. Those pieces of the puzzle will become clearer over the next day or two. And of course, we'll keep you posted on the latest developments, so you can plan accordingly.
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Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.