As our weather transitions to a more active pattern, we'll have a week of rapid-fire minor rain and snow events along with a roller coaster of temperatures.

Even though it came with rain and clouds, this weekend's mild temperatures provided another lovely taste of Spring. This week's forecast has even my head spinning, with a barrage of (weak) storm systems and a series of temperature rises and falls. This is admittedly a shaky forecast, especially beyond about Wednesday.

Things were pretty soggy for much of the Garden State on Sunday, and the same may for true for Monday. As our storm system slowly departs out-to-sea, spotty light rain is possible throughout the day, especially in southern and coastal New Jersey. The rest of the state will most likely just see clouds and a stiff breeze, although I wouldn't rule out a rain shower at some point. To the north and west, we may get a few breaks of sun by Monday afternoon.

Monday's high temperatures will range from 40 to 45 degrees — not bad for the last week of January, but cooler than this weekend's mild 50s.

While a rain or snow shower remains possible Monday night, it should be quiet (although cloudy). Look for low temperatures to dip to about 30 degrees, give or take.

Our next storm system will arrive Tuesday. With temperatures limited to the mid 30s, we'll see a chance of light snow across the entire state. This storm system is compact, weak, and fast-moving — all of which will combine with the non-frozen ground to limit accumulations. It's going to be a bit windy too, with potential gusts to 30 mph.
--Timing: Tuesday mid-morning through early evening.
--Accumulations: Most of the state has the potential for a half-inch to an inch of accumulation, with upwards of 2 inches of fresh snow on the ground if we get a heavier snow band to set up.
--Impacts: A minor snow event at best, there could be some travel issues if the snowfall lingers into the evening commute.

Skies will clear Tuesday night, and temperatures will continue to drop in our newly refreshed colder air mass. Lows will be mostly in the teens, with only urban and coastal areas in the 20s.

Wednesday's forecast is quiet, but chilly — high temperatures will once again be limited to the mid 30s. Skies will be mostly to partly sunny, with lighter winds.

Temps should bounce back into the 40s on Thursday, thanks to a southwest flow carrying in warmer air. With increase warmth and moisture will come increasing clouds on Thursday too.

The next next storm system in the Thursday-Friday time frame had been one to watch, although recent data suggests a weaker, less organized system that will pass well north of New Jersey. The snow potential looks less impactful now, but there are significant differences between forecast models.
--GFS Scenario: The faster solution, putting a transitory rain-to-snow situation on top of New Jersey from Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning. Up to an inch of snow accumulation would be possible.
--Euro Scenario: This solution has a later timeline, showing mostly snow from Thursday evening through Friday midday. The snowier Euro only drops an inch or two (eh, maybe three) of fresh snow over New Jersey through the duration.

Friday and Saturday will probably be cold again, with highs only in the lower 30s.

New Jersey's next next next storm system is currently showing up on Sunday. Once again, above-freezing temperatures will make all-snow tricky, but we could see a little bit of accumulation. Lots of time for this forecast to evolve in the coming days.

Got all that? Great! Keep in mind, although most of the cold/wind/rain/snow impacts I've painted here are mind, this is a highly fluid forecast. If possible, keep plans flexible, just in case things goes downhill in a hurry. As always, we'll keep you posted with the play-by-play weather changes.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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