After so much dramatic weather this Spring — rain and thunderstorms and wind and big warmups and dramatic cooldowns and snow (less than a month ago) — it's nice to have such a beautiful and quiet stretch of weather in the forecast. There are some subtle changes — a warmup and midweek shower chance. And the weekend might not be so nice.

If you liked Sunday's weather, you'll love Monday's forecast too. We're starting out in the 50s across most of New Jersey. There are some 40s in NW NJ and 60s along the Jersey Shore. It might be a little cool for the casual "shorts and t-shirt" early on, but dry air will allow temperatures to warm quickly. We'll enjoy, bright, sunny skies Monday morning. Then some fair-weather clouds will pop into the sky Monday afternoon. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Right on the normal for this time of year — nothing to complain about here, at all!

The only difference I can find between Sunday and Monday is a lighter northwest breeze. That will allow for a stronger sea breeze to set up, keeping the Jersey Shore a few degrees cooler. Lower to mid 70s will still be quite pleasant. Ocean water temperatures have warmed up substantially over the past couple of weeks, now reading mid 60s.

Monday night will be mostly clear and comfortably cool. Low temperatures will bottom out in the upper 50s to around 60.

Another sunny, dry day is on deck for Tuesday. And we kick into a little warmup, with highs pushing into the lower 80s (away from the coast). Humidity will remain manageable.

Then Wednesday will get even warmer and stickier, as dew points pop into the mid 60s (at least) and temperatures reach the mid 80s. There will be more cloud cover too — let's call it partly to mostly cloudy.

Our next chance of rain is set to arrive late Wednesday, maybe as early as 5 p.m. in far NW NJ. It looks like just some passing showers Wednesday evening, ahead of a quick round of rain for the entire state early Thursday morning. The Euro model is alone in depicting a slower frontal passage, keeping raindrops lingering over New Jersey through Thursday afternoon. I favor a forecast featuring partial clearing (especially to the north and west) with high temperatures in the lower 80s. Humidity dials back too.

Friday looks fine, with sun and clouds and temperatures back in the 80s.

And then things get muddled as another stalled-front situation potentially sets up for the weekend. This has been happening way too often lately, when a slow-moving frontal boundary (the dividing line between two air masses) just gets stuck over the Northeast U.S. That front acts as a "highway" for atmospheric disturbances, bringing us a persistent chance of rain.

It's too early in the week to make a confident call about which day, Saturday or Sunday, will be wetter. Or if either day will be a total washout. Or the exact impacts raindrops and cloud cover will have on temperatures. Worst case scenario would be several inches of rain over the course of two and a half days — yuck!

It does make sense that our deliciously dry weather will end eventually. It would be unfortunate for that transition to happen over a weekend (the last weekend of Spring, no less). Obviously, we'll be focusing closely on the timeline of that transition throughout the week.

One more note... Tropical Depression Cristobal (unusual pronunciation: krees-TOH-bahl) made landfall late Sunday along the Louisiana coast (as a tropical storm). It will continue to bring rain and wind to the lower Mississippi Valley Monday. The remnants of Cristobal will then drift northward over the Great Lakes and Canada later this week, passing well west of New Jersey. Therefore, no weather or surf impacts are expected here.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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