The Bottom Line
As we approach the midpoint of April, we have a pretty unsettled forecast here. Full of April showers, clouds, and unseasonably cool and “blah” weather. But let’s pay special attention to the patches of dry, pleasant weather along the way - specifically Tuesday and next weekend.
Believe it or not, this is record-breaking rain. Daily rainfall records don’t mean much, but with 0.91” on Sunday, Atlantic City International Airport had the wettest April 11th on record. (Previous record 0.90” in 1958.)
We did need the rain, with April rainfall still running a bit below normal. (I just lament my leaking roof and my son’s cancelled Little League practice!)
We have added to that total since Midnight, and there is more spotty rain on the way Monday. Nothing dangerous per se, just damp. And it won’t be a washout of a day. The most rainfall during the day will be found in the northern third to half of New Jersey. Farther south, I believe we’ll see substantial pockets of dry weather along the way.
No matter what’s falling from the sky, it’ll be cloudy and cool. Morning temperatures are in the 40s, and we’ll struggle to even reach 50 degrees by Monday afternoon.
Lingering showers and sprinkles remain possible through Monday night. Final raindrops are expected to fall over the Garden State by daybreak Tuesday morning. Fog is possible overnight, with low temps in the lower 40s.
Looking pretty good! Expect a dry day, with partial sunshine. High temperatures will pop to around 60 degrees. A light sea breeze may keep Jersey Shore towns in the 50s.
We might squeeze out some pleasant weather on Wednesday too, but it won’t be perfect. Skies will become mostly cloudy, with mild high temperatures between about 60 and 65 degrees.
There will be some rain showers around during the day Wednesday - model solutions range from “hit-or-miss” to “scattered”. The later in the day it gets, the better the rain chance. In fact, steady rain will probably come into play Wednesday night.
Wet. Another storm system will track right over New Jersey, leading to prolonged periods of steady to heavy rain. Rainfall totals may top an inch across much of the state - a thorough soaking.
It will be breezy and cool, with high temperatures only reaching the lower 50s. And, with the eventual arrival of a cold front from the west, those temperatures may tumble as the day goes on.
Friday & Beyond
Let me be crystal clear - some models are going absolutely bonkers about a chance of snow on Friday. 6 inches of snowfall in mid-April? Crazy!
I don’t buy it at all. Temperatures both on the ground, near the surface, and aloft just don’t look cold enough for significant winter weather. (Again, it’s mid-April, not mid-winter.)
Could we see some snowflakes in North Jersey? Sure. Accumulations? Eh, I’m leaning toward no, but let’s see how the forecast continues to evolve this week.
Otherwise, Friday will be chilly and wet - rain (and/or wintry mix) may last through much of the afternoon. High temperatures will be limited to the upper 40s or so, with a stiff northwest breeze.
The early call for next weekend looks good, as we finally shift from unsettled to quiet weather. I’ll call Saturday mostly to partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Sunday will be brighter and warmer, with good sunshine and 60s.
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.