Latest update on more rain and NJ’s Memorial Day Weekend forecast

The Bottom Line

It has been an "up and down" spring so far, with plenty of warm, cool, wet, and dry weather around New Jersey.

In this forecast, we are talking about one more pleasant day in our current stretch. Then two soaking wet days. Then the big Memorial Day Weekend forecast.

And there is a resounding theme here: Cool temperatures. Normal highs here in late May are in the lower to mid 70s. But much of New Jersey will not see 70 degrees again until early next week. In fact, rain, thick clouds, and an on-shore breeze will lead to miserable March-like temperatures for a couple days.

Will our weather improve for the big holiday weekend? Yes. Will it warm up? Only a little bit.

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Tuesday

Tuesday is a "balancing act" kind of day. It will turn cloudier and cooler than Monday. But winds will be lighter, and we are staying dry. So overall, I have no problem calling it pleasant.

Tuesday morning is pretty chilly though — do not be ashamed to grab a jacket or sweater, with widespread 40s on the temperature map.

Tuesday afternoon will be comfortable. Although, by the numbers, we will end up slightly below seasonal norms. Look for highs around 65 to 70 degrees.

Early sunshine will be covered by clouds as the day goes on. The sky will still stay relatively bright though. And our weather will be dry.

Expect a northerly breeze, gusting over 15 mph. That is noticeably lighter than the past two days.

Tuesday evening will probably stay dry too. Under mostly cloudy skies, overnight lows will dip to around 50 degrees.

The first raindrops of our next storm system will probably arrive from the southwest just before daybreak Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

Two words to describe Wednesday's weather: Wet and cool.

Is Wednesday going to be a total washout? Not technically. (Meaning raindrops may not be falling at every minute of every hour.) But it is going to be wet and pretty sloppy.

An area of low pressure passing overhead will produce periods of rain throughout Wednesday. That could include some heavier pockets, especially in South Jersey. It will stay cloudy, with a stiff breeze blowing from the east (off the ocean).

Because of the rain, clouds, and breeze, temperatures will go absolutely nowhere on Wednesday. We will be stuck in the 50s for the duration. Far northern New Jersey may actually chill out in the 40s all day.

Wet, dreary weather will continue into Wednesday night too.

Thursday

More of the same. As the area of low pressure redevelops and lingers just off the coast, additional bands of rain will soak New Jersey.

While you may encounter some big puddles and perhaps a stray rumble of thunder, there are no major alarm bells to ring here. Most of NJ will likely see over an inch of healthy rainfall. But because it is spread out over the course of 36 hours, the risk of widespread flooding is relatively low.

It looks like the rain bands will start to break apart late Thursday afternoon, with the drying trend accelerating into Thursday evening.

Temperatures on Thursday will once again hover in the 50s for most of the state. If a slot of drier air moves into SW NJ soon enough, South Jersey could see some 60s at the tail-end of the day.

Friday

Friday will be a day of transition. Not just for our weather, but for New Jerseyans eager to celebrate the Memorial Day Weekend.

Skies will remain mostly cloudy. And I suspect we will see some additional isolated to spotty shower activity over New Jersey through about midday on Friday. Not everyone in the state will get wet here — just know the chance is still alive for some damp weather on Friday.

Temperatures will do a little better Friday afternoon, reaching about 60 degrees. That is still below normal for this time of year. But less uncomfortable than the 40s and 50s of Tuesday and Wednesday.

Memorial Day Weekend

That brings us to the big Memorial Day Weekend. The unofficial start of summer! And the time when we pause to remember those who made the ultimate sacrifice for our freedom to celebrate.

Saturday looks OK. Just OK. We'll see a mix of clouds and sun, with a stiff northwesterly breeze carrying. High temperatures will end up somewhere in the lower to mid 60s. Not very summer-ish — I'm not sure the pool or ocean will be popular hotspots on Saturday. But the backyard, boardwalk, park, etc? Pretty comfortable. Even autumnal.

Sunday gets better. Partly sunny and 70 degrees. Still a tad below normal.

And Memorial Day Monday is probably the pick of the bunch. I'm seeing sun and clouds and highs in the seasonable lower 70s. Can't complain about that.

Forecast models are picking up on a storm system digging south of New Jersey early next week. That could send a shower into southern New Jersey late-day Monday. I am keeping my forecast dry for now, but it is something we will have to watch as time goes on.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.