The Bottom Line
We find ourselves sandwiched between two storm systems, a stalled frontal boundary and a coastal storm system. That will keep New Jersey's weather rather unsettled for two days, Thursday and Friday, with clouds and a few waves of showers and thunderstorms. You will probably get wet, at some point. But the risk for flooding and severe weather is very low.
Once the weekend arrives, we'll start a stretch of 4 or 5 consecutive beautiful weather days, leading right to the start of autumn next week.
As of this writing (5:30 a.m.), a band of steady rain continues to soak northwestern New Jersey. There are other isolated pockets of rain around Essex-Union and Monmouth-Ocean counties.
This will be the story of the day: Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms will impact the Garden State as the day goes on. Far from a washout, but not overly pleasant either.
The best shot at dry weather Thursday will be in the middle of the day. You might even see the sun break out for a few hours.
The temperature forecast is tricky, wholly dependent on just how many minutes you see rain and/or sun. I think we'll average upper 70s across the state Thursday afternoon. Wetter and cloudier corners of the state could get stuck in the lower to mid 70s all day. Extra sunshine to the south could push thermometers into the 80s. (In any case, it's not going to get much warmer than the lower 70s we have right now.)
Most rainfall totals going forward will end up between a tenth of an inch and a quarter-inch.
As I mentioned earlier, the threat for widespread severe weather and flooding is very low. Could an isolated storm cell spit out some rain and heavy rain? Sure.
The chance of spotty showers and sprinkles will continue Thursday night. Fog is a possibility too. Low temperatures will dip into the upper 60s or so.
One more unsettled day, and probably the drier of the pair. A shower or little thunderstorm will be possible at any time, under cloudy skies. (I don't see much opportunity for peeks of sun this time around.)
High temperatures will only reach the mid 70s. Cooler than the rest of the week, but actually just a few degrees below seasonal normals.
By the way, the coastal storm component of this complicated setup will pass within 200 to 300 miles of NJ early Friday morning. There's still a chance that it becomes a named tropical storm — the next names on the 2021 Atlantic list are Odette and Peter. It will also keep our surf rough for at least Thursday and Friday — a moderate risk of rip currents is posted for the Shore.
Sunshine returns! The exact timing of the clearing-out is unclear — somewhere between Friday evening and Saturday midday. But we head into the weekend with dry weather, mostly sunny skies, and high temperatures pushing into the lower 80s. Very nice.
Sunday & Beyond
On Sunday, we'll benefit from the arrival of a drier air mass, kicking dew points into the 50s and making the air much more comfortable. It will still be sunny and warm, with highs again in the lower 80s. Even nicer.
We'll keep the consistent, pleasant, quiet weather going for Monday and Tuesday too. Sun and lower 80s.
Models show a strong cold front encroaching upon New Jersey around the middle of next week, just as the seasons change from summer to fall. That would lead to a period of rain, followed by a noticeable cooldown in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame.
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.