Grab the umbrella: On and off showers continue for NJ this week

The Bottom Line

Most of New Jersey picked up some beneficial rain this weekend. As expected, the soggy weather was mixed with periods of pleasant weather. This is a trend that will continue for most of this week too.

Remember: We are in "unsettled" weather territory here. I will do my best to capture and communicate each day's rain chances, in terms of the timing and the intensity. But there remains a great deal of variability among forecast models in situations like this. So blur your eyes when you look at the forecast, carry an umbrella just in case, and look out the window every once in a while.

Expect on and off rain on Monday and Tuesday, then a break from Wednesday into Thursday. One more push of rain is coming late week, before we hopefully dry out again for the Mother's Day Weekend.

Total rainfall over the next few days is tricky to pinpoint, especially since forecast models have done a poor job with this stagnant storm system so far. I think everyone in NJ is guaranteed another quarter-inch to half-inch. That could be much higher if pockets — on the order of 1 to 2+ inches — if steadier, heavier rain set up. Best chance for that would be to the north and east.

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Monday

Monday morning, we have a few spot showers around — most of NJ is starting the day dry. It is dreary, with overcast skies and pockets of fog. Temperatures are hovering around 60 degrees.

Do not expect thermometers to go anywhere Monday, with highs mainly in the 60s through the afternoon. The southwestern corner of the state may push closer to 70 degrees, but I think that will be very limited.

Expect on and off showers throughout the day. It is not a washout, but reason enough to grab an umbrella. A pocket of heavier stuff is possible at some point, which may produce ponding or flooding issues. But severe weather is unlikely.

Minor coastal flooding is possible, due to a light but persistent easterly on-shore breeze.

Rain chances eventually dial back Monday, especially after Midnight. Fog is likely again. Low temperatures should dip into the upper 50s.

Tuesday

Tuesday will be a mixed bag. Once again, you will find a few hours of dry weather scattered across the day. But also some rain.

It looks like two or three bands of showers and thunderstorms will travel through New Jersey during the day Tuesday.

In between, you may catch some peeks of sun. That will be enough to push our high temperature to around 60 degrees (give or take).

Wednesday

Wednesday is all about improving weather. As this stagnant storm system finally kicks out of our neighborhood, skies should brighten and temperatures should warm.

I think we will still have to dodge some spotty showers and drizzle Wednesday morning. And then partial clearing will take over Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures will end up in the lower 70s — meaning Wednesday could (should) turn into a very nice day.

Thursday

Thursday will be OK. Expect mostly cloudy skies, a light breeze, and mild high temperatures in the lower 70s.

The only hiccup is that the front-end of our next storm system could spark some late-day showers Thursday, especially along the western edge of New Jersey.

Friday

All model guidance has really swung wet for Friday. If this forecast holds, it could be a washout of a day.

Wettest-case scenario would be another 1 to 2 inches of rain statewide. Yeah, that's wet.

Assuming it stays rainy and cloudy all day, temperatures would be miserably cool. Stuck in the 50s, something like 15 degrees below normal for early May.

The Extended Forecast

I could see some sprinkles linger into Saturday morning. But the rest of the weekend is looking dry for now. Highs recover to the 60s on Saturday.

Sunday is actually our next shot at a perfectly warm, dry, sunny day from start to finish. With high temperatures in the 70s and a light westerly breeze, it could be a very nice Mother's Day treat.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.