Big warmup only one day away for NJ – how warm, and for how long?
We made it, New Jersey! This Thursday morning may very well be our last chilly, frosty morning of the season (at least for a while). It's a hard thing to gauge for the entire state, but I think this streak of frost has run a little later than normal, although not overly so.
We're all looking forward to warmer weather. And yes, it's still on the way! But unfortunately, the long-range outlook shows it won't last as long as we had hoped... (Cue ominous music...)
Thursday looks like a very nice day. In fact, following along temperatures trends so far this week and the latest model guidance, I decided to bump up our forecast. We'll put high temps Thursday afternoon mainly in the upper 60s to around 70 — it will be cooler to the NW and SE.
Our weather will stay dry during the daytime hours Thursday, but I do have to add a chance of showers Thursday night. Best chance of raindrops looks to be northern New Jersey.
Temperatures overnight will not be that cold, dipping into the upper 50s or so. If this forecast verifies, this will be our warmest night since Halloween!
Friday is the big warmup day, as thermometers surge into the lower 80s across most of the state. Thermometers could even hit 84 or 85 somewhere in the state. This will likely be our warmest day of the season so far. (We've hit 80 degrees a few times, but it was not widespread.)
Even the Jersey Shore gets in on the runaway warmth, except for the Delaware Bay shore and barrier islands. That's because the warmth will be fueled by a strong southwesterly wind, gusting between 30 and 40 mph. I believe we'll see lots of bright sunshine, with intervals of clouds along the day. You'll feel a touch of humidity in the air too, as dew points surge to about 60.
We will have to watch the sky carefully starting Friday late afternoon, as a line of showers and thunderstorms rolls through New Jersey. Given the warmth and humidity, those storms will have plenty of energy in the atmosphere to grow and strengthen. So the risk of severe weather (wind, hail, tornado) is up there. Based on timing (anything pre-sunset), the strongest storms are expected in the northern half of the state.
Showers may linger in southern New Jersey through early Saturday morning. And then, even though we'll see more clouds than sun, I'm still liking Saturday's forecast a lot. Humidity dials back a bit, but temperatures stay pleasantly warm averaging mid 70s.
Sunday, however, brings a new change and the start of an enormous wrinkle to our extended forecast. A storm system will arrive from the west, bringing its standard fare of clouds and rain showers (starting around Sunday late morning). However, a coastal storm system comes into the picture here too. (That area of low pressure, by the way, is being monitor for potential tropical development.)
It looks like the continental low will stall just south of New Jersey on Sunday, blocked by the more prominent features over the Atlantic Ocean. And that low will sit and spin through most of next week. Depending on which model you believe, we could have a daily rain chance through part of the Memorial Day Weekend? (Blech!)
This is an unfortunate development, because the persistent clouds, periods of rain, and brisk on-shore winds will also sufficiently kill our warmup. Highs for Sunday and beyond will only reach the lower 60s, at best.
Important note, however — I do not see any more widespread frosts or freezes for the foreseeable future. So it will be cool, not cold — still an improvement over the last 2 to 4 weeks!