About 30 hours of dry, pleasant weather before rain returns to NJ

The Bottom Line

We made it! After five days of unsettled, occasionally wet weather around New Jersey, we finally get a break of brighter, drier weather. (In fact, much of the state got a taste of pleasant weather on Tuesday.)

Did the recent rains help our drought and wildfire danger concerns? Yes, although it really depends where you are. Northwestern New Jersey has been the overall rainfall winner so far this month, with about two and a half inches in the bucket. But parts of South Jersey saw hardly anything, less than a quarter-inch.

Everybody in the Garden State will have the opportunity for a solid soaking, as our next storm system rolls in late Thursday to Friday. Over an inch of rain is possible.

Aside from that late week rain and another soaker in the middle of next week, this is otherwise a good looking forecast. I'm happy to say that this optimistic outlook includes the Mother's Day Weekend.

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Wednesday

As of early this morning, we had one last batch of light showers — sprinkles and mist — passing across New Jersey. But it's out of here, and the rest of Wednesday will be dry and pleasant.

Temperatures are starting the day mainly in the 50s. And we will top out around 70 to 75 degrees. With partly sunny skies, a light breeze, and lower humidity.

All around, a beautiful day with no complaints.

Wednesday night stays quiet and comfortable, with a few clouds overhead. Low temps will dip into the mid 50s.

Thursday

Most of Thursday looks OK. Although the later it gets, the more rain chances will increase.

The first half of the day will feature a nice mix of sun and clouds, with mild high temperatures in the lower 70s.

A few showers and thunderstorms may creep in around mid-afternoon Thursday. More likely, showers and storms will envelop New Jersey Thursday evening.

I do not think there is an elevated risk of severe weather or flooding from Thursday's run-of-the-mill thunderstorms. Just keep an eye on the sky, especially if you have outdoor plans late-day.

Friday

Friday looks wet. Period, full stop.

Will it be a total washout? That is a good question. Some model guidance is pointing to periods of steady to heavy rain from morning right through the afternoon. But some model forecasts show solid rain in the morning, then a drying trend through the afternoon. So if you have outdoor plans around the Friday late afternoon to early evening hours, you have a chance of getting it in.

Again, the severe weather threat (wind, hail, tornado) will be low Friday. But this could be our heaviest and most widespread rain event of the week. Total rainfall will likely range from 0.75" to 1.50" — that means most of New Jersey could see over an inch of beneficial rain.

Mother's Day Weekend

For the first time in a while, I am confident we will see a nice weekend. Having said that, the chance for rain is not zero.

A storm system passing south of New Jersey will be close enough to produce some extra cloud cover throughout the southern half of the state on Saturday. Northern NJ will be sunnier.

If that system wiggles even closer, a few showers may clip the southern edge of the state on Saturday too. I am leaning into a dry forecast for the vast majority of the state, but we will have to watch this raindrop potential closely.

Mother's Day Sunday looks dry and bright, with partly sunny skies. It could very well be the nicest day of May so far.

Temperatures this weekend will be on the mild side, feeling springy. Near 70 on Saturday, pushing into the lower to mid 70s on Sunday.

The Extended Forecast

Another batch of rain is on the horizon, set to arrive in New Jersey in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. Just like Friday, this one could be a real soaker, with over an inch of rain in spots.

That's all I got for now, as uncertainty regarding the timing of next week's storm is high. We will dial it in more once it gets closer.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.