10 NJ counties at risk for U.S. real estate crash — Is yours one? (Opinion)

The frenzy to buy and sell homes in New Jersey seemed like it would never end. Depending on where you live in New Jersey you probably still feel that way.

Historically low home-mortgage rates and the pandemic push to get out of crowded areas and into more spacious homes and land made for an unprecedented seller’s market in the state, with inventory at an all time low and prices at an all-time high. But at some point, something’s gotta give.

ATTOM, a company that provides nationwide real estate and property data just released the latest numbers for the housing market and it doesn’t look great for New Jersey. In a news release, the company says 50 counties in the country are most at-risk for a housing downturn, and 10 of them are right here in New Jersey.

The study notes that the at-risk counties all suffer declining home affordability, declining investor profits and rising inflation.

According to the study, there are three warning signs that are always present prior to a housing downturn. Those are: Housing that is unaffordable for average workers, higher levels of foreclosures, and larger portions of homeowners who are underwater on their mortgages. These counties have hit the trifecta.

The study calls 8 of these “at risk” NJ counties “the New York City metropolitan area.”

These are Bergen, Essex, Hunterdon, Middlesex, Ocean, Passaic, and Sussex counties.

The 3 of them that were considered “the Philadelphia, PA, area” are Burlington, Camden and Gloucester counties.

Another part of the study ranked counties most at risk for foreclosures. Nationwide, one in 2,446 homes faced a foreclosure action. In many of the top 50 counties at risk for foreclosure, that number narrows to 1 in 1,500.

Cumberland, Sussex, and Camden Counties all ranked in the top 50 at risk of facing foreclosure. Cumberland County homes have a 1 in 743 shot of facing foreclosure, Sussex 1 in 709 and Camden County homes have a 1 in a measly 606 chance.

Well, we knew it wouldn’t last forever. But one had to assume that with slowly rising mortgage rates and eviction moratoria expiring, a housing downturn was imminent. And now it seems, at least in those counties, it’ll happen sooner than later.

Opinions expressed in the post above are those of New Jersey 101.5 talk show host Judi Franco only.

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