Wednesday NJ weather: A bit brighter, warmer, and better
The Bottom Line
Wednesday will probably end up halfway between "blah" and "beautiful," as the clouds part and thin more and more as the day goes on. Rainfall looks pretty minimal over the next few days. However, a complicated and stubborn coastal storm system will lead to cloudy, breezy, unsettled, damp conditions for the majority of the Columbus Day Weekend.
We're starting the day with some patchy fog, drizzle, and low clouds around New Jersey. Nothing severe that will necessarily get in your way — I haven't seen any visibility numbers below a mile. But you will notice it. Parts of the Garden State will be dreary and somewhat damp, a continuation of Tuesday.
With a hint of humidity in the air and dew points near 60, thermometers will bottom out in the lower 60s Wednesday morning.
On this 6th day of October, our long-term average high temperature is about 70 degrees. And, what do you know, our forecast high is around 70. So on the temperature side, things will be seasonable, typical, and comfortable.
I'm calling the day "mostly cloudy," which is defined as approximately 75% cloud cover. That allows for breaks of sun. And especially Wednesday afternoon, I think we'll see brighter and brighter skies.
Clouds will continue to thin Wednesday night, with low temperatures falling into the upper 50s.
Partly sunny skies, mild temperatures, and dry weather. That's a recipe for what could become NJ's nicest day of the week. High temperatures will push into the mid 70s, on a very light southwesterly breeze.
Another pleasant day. Mixed sun and clouds will make for bright skies. The only hiccup is a switch to a southeasterly wind. That's going to blow off the ocean and bays, keeping coastal areas a few degrees cooler than Thursday. Look for highs predominantly in the lower to mid 70s.
Saturday & Sunday
The big Columbus Day Weekend approaches. And we're right in the heart of "autumn activities" season. Corn mazes, apple picking, youth sports, football, marching band competitions.
Unfortunately, this weekend's weather forecast doesn't look great. A complicated setup surrounded an area of low pressure that will slowly meander just off our coastline. While rainfall totals will be minimal, there could be just enough thick clouds and drizzle to put a damper on your fun. Minor coastal flooding is a possibility too.
Saturday will be not only cloudy but breezy, with wind gusts over 20 mph. Spotty showers and drizzle will be possible. High temperatures will only reach the upper 60s to around 70.
Sunday is tricky. The Euro model pushes in a band of steady rain through the middle of the day. But it stands alone in that wet idea, so I'm not convinced yet. Once again, at the very least, clouds will win the sky. And thermometers will struggle to climb past 70.
So neither weekend day will be a total washout. Not even close. Just back to "blah" weather.
The Extended Forecast
Have we officially fallen into fall? Are we done with warmth and 80s? Not necessarily. Long-range forecasts are signalling a warmup taking over by late next week, carrying into mid October.
The tropics remain quiet, with no significant developments on the horizon in the Atlantic.
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.