Two more days of unseasonably cold weather for NJ

The Bottom Line

37, 39, 41, 40, 40.

Those are the observed high temperatures (in degrees Fahrenheit) at Trenton Mercer Regional Airport for December 1-5. It has been a cold start to the month, for sure. And it is about to get colder, as we brace for the coldest early December weather in several years.

Friday will be the bottom of the barrel, the coldest day of the season so far. Saturday will be chilly too.

And then temperatures will moderate for Sunday and beyond. It is not going to get "warm" per se — but more seasonable and more comfortable for sure.

Our weather also stays active and a bit unsettled through next week. There are three storm systems and three chances of much-needed precipitation in the forecast.

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Friday

It is actually not that cold Friday morning, owing to a breeze keeping the cold air stirred up and a blanket of scattered clouds overhead. All corners of New Jersey are starting the day below freezing, with temperatures hovering near 30 degrees.

Problem number one? Thermometers go nowhere Friday. We will only see high temperatures in the lower to mid 30s Friday afternoon. It's not "dangerous cold" or "record-breaking cold," but definitely unseasonable — by the numbers, this will probably be NJ's coldest day since last January.

Problem number two? The breeze. Gusting over 20 mph at times, that will add a big bite to the cold air. Expect wind chills ("feels like" or "apparent" temperatures) no higher than the 20s. You should strongly consider the heavy winter gear heading out the front door.

Non-problem? Snow. There are a few batches of flurries around the state. But I do not expect any accumulations, nor substantial visibility or traction issues.

Otherwise, Friday will be mostly sunny, with some extra passing clouds through the afternoon.

Friday night will be cold too, of course. Lows will dip into the mid 20s — another hard freeze for non-coastal, non-urban New Jersey. The overnight will be clear and dry.

Saturday

Diving into the first full weekend of December, and we have one more unseasonably cold day to bear.

Highs on Saturday will only reach the upper 30s, with a mix of sun and clouds. Winds should be lighter than the past couple of days, at least.

Sunday

Sunday will be better.

A surge of warmer air will push highs into the upper 40s to around 50 degrees Sunday afternoon. As I said, far from "warm" — but that is very close to normal highs for early December. So we'll take it.

Latest model guidance shows a batch of spotty showers passing through New Jersey Sunday morning. From about 2 a.m. to 10 a.m., there could be some snowflakes and raindrops around. I would not rule out a dusting or coating on the coldest surfaces — but we are not talking about needing a shovel and/or travel headaches here.

The rest of Sunday will be mostly cloudy and somewhat breezy.

Monday

Monday presents a decent chance for widespread wet weather. With New Jersey still in Extreme/Severe Drought status, we still very much need the rain.

Best chance of rain will be from Monday midday through the evening hours. It looks completely liquid — nothing wintry. And nothing too heavy or severe. Total rainfall will probably average a quarter-inch across the state.

Unfortunately, I have had to cool our temperature forecast for Monday. (I had previously been calling for widespread 50s.) That is because of the duration of rain during the daytime hours, the thickness of the cloud cover, and a light on-shore breeze in play too.

The Extended Forecast

Tuesday will be somewhat unsettled, although I favor a dry forecast for now. Under mostly cloudy skies, temperatures will warm into the 40s for the northern half of the state and the 50s to the south.

Wednesday will be our next opportunity for some wet, inclement weather. Scattered rain looks possible throughout the daytime and nighttime hours on Wednesday. If we really tap into some rich moisture, pockets of heavy rain could drive rainfall totals over an inch.

It is a shame Wednesday's weather will be so murky and soggy, since it will be the warmest day of the week. High temperatures may nudge past 60 degrees in South Jersey.

The backend of Wednesday's storm system is a cold front. And as temperatures tumble, there could be a couple hours of snow on the backside. Especially in colder northwestern New Jersey. Usually these "overrunning cold events" do not cause substantial accumulations. But let's keep the possibility of a few inches in mind.

Thursday's highs will retreat to the 30s. Back to brrrr!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.