Two days of December-ish chill, still hardly any rain for NJ

The Bottom Line

The drought rolls on. Out of curiosity, I pulled up a graph of year-to-date precipitation for the Trenton-Mercer Airport weather station. And I think it tells our overall story well.

We did so well from January through early August. Despite a relatively dormant winter, slightly above normal rainfall carried through the spring. There were some dryness concerns in the summer, but the surplus kept us in a good place hydrologically.

And then August came along. That nearly flat line over the last three months is very telling. The lack of rain is really starting to take its toll on NJ — from rampant wildfires, to agricultural concerns, to low reservoirs and wells. Unfortunately, the situation is only going to get worse and worse until we pick up multiple inches of fresh rain. And there is nothing even close to that in the forecast.

Meanwhile, temperatures have been knocked back to the chilly side for a few days. Highs near 50 degrees would be typical and pleasant in early December or mid-March. But here in mid-November, I have to call it unseasonably cool.

Temperatures will moderate heading into the third weekend of November. With minimal shower chances along the way.

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Wednesday

OK, it definitely feels like November now. You are waking up on this Wednesday morning to temperatures mainly in the 30s. Any little breeze easily pushes the wind chill down into the 20s. Grab the jacket — you will need it all day.

High temperatures Wednesday afternoon will only reach about 50 degrees. That is around 5 degrees below normal for this time of year. Chilly and crisp. At least the wind will be considerably lighter and less blustery Wednesday. It will be very dry though, having you reach for the moisturizer, lip balm, and/or water bottle.

Some clouds will roll in eventually Wednesday night, probably after Midnight. It will be another cold November night, with low temperatures averaging lower 30s across the state.

Thursday

Another unseasonably cool day, with highs once again only reaching about 50 degrees. But this time around, abundant cloud cover will make it feel pretty "blah" at times.

A broad storm system will make a pass at New Jersey late Thursday. But it's mainly a miss and mainly a dud. While parts of Virginia and the Carolinas will see 1 to 2 inches of rain, New Jersey will benefit from only a sprinkle or shower. Especially around the southwestern corner of the state. Total rainfall, maybe a few hundredths of an inch. What a tease.

One more important note. A persistent northeasterly breeze will push some seawater toward the Jersey Shore over the next few days. So each high tide cycle through Thursday and early Friday could produce minor to spotty moderate category flooding of tidal waterways. A Coastal Flood Watch has been posted along the Jersey Shore as a formal heads-up.

Friday

Friday will bring the return of sunny skies. And temperatures will start to warm up in response.

As long as it doesn't get too breezy, Friday should be a nice middle-of-November day. Forecast highs push into the seasonable mid 50s.

Saturday

Saturday will be fairly mild, with highs near 60 degrees. It will be sunny, breezy, and dry.

Sunday & Beyond

Sunday will also end up near 60 degrees, and Monday could push into the 60s. A weak disturbance will try to push a batch of scattered showers through New Jersey during the Sunday night to Monday morning time frame. But once again, keep your expectations low — this is not a soaking, just a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall.

Cooler 50s prevail again on Tuesday. There are signs of another more substantial rainmaker storm system arriving late next week. But that means absolutely nothing until we get closer, and the forecast firms up a bit more.

There is a tropical development in the Caribbean Sea, which could aim for Florida next week. I am doubtful it will have any impact on New Jersey's weather, but we will keep an eye on it.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.