Tuesday will probably be NJ’s first 70-degree day of the year

The Bottom Line

Can I tell you how much I loved going outside Monday afternoon without needing a jacket? It was the warmest day since mid-November, with temperatures as warm as 69 degrees. And Tuesday looks even warmer.

But that will do it for this stretch of springlike weather. A weak cold front arrives Tuesday night, leading to temperatures going down for Wednesday. In the grand scheme of things, this will be a minor cooldown. But definitely noticeable.

Beyond Wednesday, temperatures get tricky with a mix of air masses in play — cooler air to the north, cooler marine air to the east, and warm air to the southwest.

Tuesday

Clear, dry days this time of year can have a unique characteristic: A massive diurnal range. In other words, the difference between the morning low temperature and afternoon high temperature can be 30+ degrees or more.

That is exactly the case for Tuesday. While you will be reaching for a jacket or sweater in the morning, you probably will not need it in the afternoon.

It will be another beautiful, springlike day, with most high temperatures reaching for 70 degrees. There is one major exception, of course: Coastal communities will be under the influence of that chilling sea breeze, keeping air temperatures closer to 50 degrees. Not terrible — just too cool for a "beach day".

Just like Monday, expect sunshine and blue skies, dry weather, and light breezes.

Tuesday night stays quiet. A few clouds may creep into the sky, as low temperatures dip to around 40 degrees.

Wednesday

Cooler for most. (The Jersey Shore will hold steady.)

But with high temperatures in the lower to mid 50s, it will still be an above-normal day. And pretty pleasant too, with a mix of sun and clouds.

As a shortwave clips northern New Jersey Wednesday night, a sprinkle or flurry will be possible. Light, brief, and really not impactful.

Thursday

By Thursday morning, winds will shift to blow from a northeasterly direction. An on-shore breeze, blowing off the cold ocean/bay water, which this time of year can have huge impacts on our weather.

Thursday does not look like a great weather day, with mostly cloudy to overcast skies. Lingering fog is a possibility too, as temperatures cool to meet the dew point.

Highs will only reach about 50 degrees on Thursday. More specifically, northern and coastal NJ could get stuck in the mid 40s. Inland areas could go as high as the mid 50s. (At least one model paints 60+ returning to southwestern New Jersey, but I'm not confident such warmth will penetrate the cloud cover and fogginess.)

Friday

On Friday, that chilly northeastern wind will flip to a better southeasterly direction. Temperatures will respond by climbing into the lower to mid 50s. It should be a pleasant mid-March day, with partly sunny skies. Perfect for your "Pi Day" celebrations.

The Weekend & Beyond

If you have outdoor plans over the upcoming last weekend of winter, Saturday will be your better bet.

Temperatures are still tricky on Saturday — we could simultaneously have 40s (to the north) and near 70 (to the south) in the afternoon. My latest forecast settles for a middle-of-the-road solution, with highs mainly between 55 and 60 degrees.

Skies will be mostly cloudy on Saturday. But our weather stays dry and winds stay light.

On Sunday, a slow-moving cold front will approach from the west, eventually leading to periods of scattered rain. The timing of this wet weather is uncertain, ranging from Sunday morning to Monday midday. And rainfall totals vary greatly by forecast model, with the GFS showing up to an inch of rain and the European going as high as 3" for part of the state. Severe thunderstorms are a possibility too.

We will hash out those important details as the weekend gets closer. Given our still-precarious dry conditions, I would love to see another good soaking for New Jersey. Hopefully avoiding any wind damage, flooding, and power outages, of course.

The long-range forecast trends warm again for next week. But true "sustained warmth" — real Spring weather — is still a few weeks away.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.