The heat is on for NJ – near-record 90s again Monday
You might find some relief from the heat in far North Jersey, next to the Delaware Bay, and on barrier islands beaches along the Jersey Shore.
Here are your weather headlines for Monday, June 12, 2017...
The technical definition of a "heat wave" is three consecutive days of 90+ degree temperatures. Sunday was day #1. Monday will be day #2. And Tuesday will be day #3, making it official.
Forecast high temperatures on Monday will be within a degree or two of the daily record high temperatures across most of New Jersey:
--EWR... Forecast 95... Record 95 (1973)
--TTN... Forecast 93... Record 94 (1933)
--ACY... Forecast 93... Record 93 (2016)
It's not quite "dangerous" heat, as dew points will be limited to the lower to mid 60s Monday. That will keep heat index (or "feels like") temperatures in the mid 90s at the highest. Even so, it's important to take care of yourself in such heat — dress in light clothing, stay hydrated, and take frequent breaks from the heat. A few school districts have announced early dismissals for Monday due to the heat.
Monday is an Air Quality Alert Day too. The NJ Department of Environmental Protection has declared Monday a "Code Orange" day. That means ground level air pollution (specifically ozone concentration) may become unhealthy for sensitive groups, such as the very young, the very old, and those with preexisting respiratory conditions. If you fall in one of those groups, you want to limit your time outdoors Monday afternoon and early evening.
Tuesday will be hot too, with most locations returning to the 90s for the third day in a row. But changes are ahead...
A backdoor cold front will begin sagging southward through New Jersey some time Tuesday afternoon. That will fire off a broken line of showers and thunderstorms (call it "widely scattered"), mainly for northern and central NJ.
Behind the front, cooler, drier air will slowly leak into the Garden State. You'll start to feel the change on Wednesday — no more 90s, as we top out between the mid 70s (coast) and the lower 80s (SW). The strength of the southeast (on-shore) breeze will dictate how much cloud cover we'll have to deal with on Wednesday. It could actually turn into a halfway decent day.
The same goes for Thursday, even though temperatures will be even cooler. Lower to mid 70s will be noticeably below normal for mid-June. (But not bad for a backdoor front, on-shore flow situation.) Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy.
And then Friday looks to bring our next chance of rain, starting around late morning. That rain could be steady for a time, accompanying the coolest temperatures of the week.
A Peek at the Weekend
Even though it's still 5-6 days away, I'm optimistic that the upcoming weekend will kick off a warming trend. While we should see glimmers of pleasant weather, the weekend forecast unfortunately does not look perfect this time around.
Saturday's forecast currently contains an isolated shower chance at any time, as our atmosphere remains unsettled in the wake of Friday's storm system. High temperatures should recover to near-normal 80 degrees (although models have flip-flopped a bit on that number in the past few runs). Skies may be a bit grey and conditions may be a bit humid, thanks to a continuing on-shore flow.
Sunday should start out good, with a stiff southerly breeze pushing statewide temps into the 80s. A chance for rain and thunderstorms does look to develop by Sunday afternoon, making for a potentially stormy end to the weekend.