Spring begins in NJ with warm then wet then windy weather

The Bottom Line

Spring has sprung! The Vernal Equinox officially arrived early Thursday morning, marking the moment the sun is directly overhead the Earth's equator. We are currently experiencing (approximately) equal length days and nights. And temperatures continue to trend warmer — normal highs are now in the lower 50s, normal lows in the mid 30s.

Our weather is about to become more active, as our atmosphere gets wavy. For almost the next week, temperatures will flip-flop daily between warmer and cooler days. Plus, there are a few rain chances coming up.

Speaking of fluctuating temps and wet weather, that is exactly what's coming up. Thursday's daytime hours will be fine, before a cold front drive in a round of showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening. Then a gusty wind will carry colder air back into New Jersey to close out the workweek on Friday.

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Thursday

Thursday's weather will be "blah" at times — the bright sunshine and blue sky of the past few days are behind us now. Also gone are 70-degree temperatures, which will not come back for at least a week. (Maybe not even until April.)

You may encounter pockets of fog and/or some patchy drizzle Thursday morning. The fog may be slow to lift, especially along coastal areas. Although it looks like visibilities will remain above the "dense fog" threshold of a quarter-mile.

Skies will remain mostly cloudy Thursday, still allowing for some peeks of sun. It will be breezy and fairly warm, with highs in the lower 60s for most. Just like on Wednesday, the Jersey Shore will end up much cooler due to an ocean breeze, stuck near 50 degrees.

The daytime hours should be mainly dry. A widespread round of showers and thunderstorms should hold off until after about 6 p.m. Everyone in the state will get wet eventually Thursday evening, with a statewide average of a half-inch of total rainfall.

The risk of severe weather (wind, hail, tornado) seems low, although there will probably be some rumbles of thunder. The chance of wintry weather is practically zero.

Rain may linger over New Jersey until early Friday morning — let's say 4 a.m. Then we will feel the other effect of this cold frontal passage — a gusty wind.

Overnight low temperatures are forecast to dip into the 30s.

Friday

Friday will be a blustery day. Windy and colder.

Top gusts on Friday could exceed 40 mph, blowing out of the northwest. That is potentially strong enough to warrant an advisory for minor damage, driving difficulties, and sporadic power outages.

Otherwise, Friday will be sunny and dry. High temperatures will drop to the lower 50s. But again, that is close to normal for this time of year.

Saturday

Saturday flips back to warmer-than-average. But it will not be a perfect start to the first weekend of spring.

Expect a mix of clouds and sun to start on Saturday. And then forecast models paint spotty rain showers over New Jersey from midday into the afternoon. Just a smattering of raindrops to dampen your spirit — less than a hundredth of an inch of rainfall is anticipated here.

Sunday

In a word, Sunday looks cold. Not exactly frigid, but definitely un-springlike.

Temperatures will probably drop just below freezing for non-coastal and non-urban Sunday morning, making for a frosty start to the day.

Sunday will be bright and sunny. And winds should stay below the "breezy" category. But high temperatures will only reach the mid 40s or so. More typical of late February than late March.

Monday & Beyond

The flip-flopping weather continues next week. After some showers Monday morning, temperatures should warm back to near 60 degrees.

Tuesday and Wednesday will turn seasonably colder again, with the latest forecast showing highs in the lower 50s.

There is nothing dramatic in the long-range forecast. No significant bursts of winter, severe weather outbreaks, or wild swings on the thermometer. There will be some daily temperature variations and occasional bouts of rain. But that's it. A pretty typical, unsettled spring weather pattern.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.