NJ weather whiplash: Sunshine, showers, and a weekend wildcard

The Bottom Line

As I sloshed around in puddles and watched my car's windshield wipers do their thing on Monday, I could not help but think of the fall. Six months ago, our weather was beautiful — but dry, dry, dry. Fire danger was extreme, as we watched both crops and reservoirs dry up.

New Jersey's weather has seen a nice turnaround over the past few weeks, with multiple rounds of soaking rain. As long as this active, occasionally soggy pattern keeps up — and I am optimistic it will — I like the way things look by the time we reach the summer heat and harvest season.

Tuesday is still a worthy candidate for the nicest day of the week. It will be bright and breezy, with mild temperatures and dry weather during the day. Limited showers are possible Tuesday night.

Cooler air returns Wednesday and Thursday. Looking ahead, the forecast for the weekend is a hot mess.

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Tuesday

Looking good! Although Tuesday morning feels raw and damp, with abundant puddles and light patchy fog, the bulk of the day will be bright and mild.

40s to start. Highs about 55 to 60 Tuesday afternoon.

I am having trouble settling on a description for cloud cover, between "mostly sunny" and "partly sunny". In the end, it really doesn't matter. There will be sun. There will be clouds. You'll feel a westerly breeze at times. And our weather will stay dry during the daytime hours.

Tuesday night, a weak impulse will drive some raindrops into New Jersey. But latest model guidance shows these showers to just barely clip the southern and eastern edges of the state. So some brief, light rain shower activity is expected within that limited geography Tuesday evening. Most of the state will stay dry, with scattered clouds.

Overnight lows will be on the chilly side, dipping into the 30s.

Wednesday

Cooler air returns. Definitely jacket weather.

High temperatures Wednesday afternoon will be limited to the lower 50s. Not terrible — but noticeably cooler, and a few degrees below normal for this time of year.

Expect periods of sun and clouds throughout Wednesday, with an occasional breeze. Some models put a flurry or sprinkle over North Jersey, but that appears to be a slight chance at best.

Thursday

Bright and sunny. But still on the cool side. Highs on Thursday will only reach about 50 degrees.

Friday

Friday will feature both increasing clouds and increasing temperatures. Despite the return of mostly cloudy to overcast conditions, highs will inch closer to 60 degrees.

Spotty rain is a possibility between Friday late afternoon and evening, although not a slam dunk. (The Euro model in particular shows only an isolated shower or sprinkle.) So that rain icon on my forecast is not a "change your plans" kind of thing — it's a "wait and see" suggestion.

The Weekend & Beyond

This forecast turns very uncertain starting this weekend. Our weather looks unsettled. And temperatures will vary greatly, depending upon where in the state you are.

That temperature gradient will set up from northeast to southwest across the state. North Jersey into the NYC metro area could be stuck in the 40s all day Saturday, with clouds and drizzle around. Meanwhile, a bubble of warm air could push southwestern New Jersey into the 70s, with peeks of sun. All at the same time!

What happens in the middle of the state? Good question. I hope I will have better insight over the coming days regarding who ends up on the warm vs. cool side of the line. And a better handle over rain chances too.

Sunday's temps will be more even-keeled, mainly between the mid 50s and mid 60s. Again, with a good chance for abundant clouds and at least some rain.

Next Monday looks like a cold front day. The current forecast calls for 70-degree warmth followed by late-day showers and thunderstorms. Since Monday is the last day of the month, that means we could be in for a lion-ish end to March with thunderstorms and a marked cooldown.

5 DAY FORECAST: New Jersey Weather Center