President’s Day weekend storm is trending a bit snowier and rainier for NJ

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For the latest winter storm forecast information, please refer to my newest weather blog post.

The Bottom Line

Sorry to interrupt this beautiful February day! (I think it is the first time I have been able to call New Jersey's weather "pleasant" without hesitation in over a month.) But this holiday weekend will not stay so perfect. We have been watching a storm system for several days now, and the latest forecast is turning more impactful and more wintry. So it is time to get a bit more serious about it.

A period of inclement, wet and/or wintry weather is expected between late Sunday afternoon and early Monday morning (President's Day). Because the track of this storm system has jogged slightly north and because temperatures have trended slightly cooler, all of New Jersey will likely see something fall from the sky during that time period.

Temperatures are the tricky point here, as they will be right around (or just above) the freezing point as precipitation falls. That means rain is the more likely precipitation type for southern New Jersey, snow is likely to mix with rain farther north, any snow that does form will be very wet and dense (limiting accumulation), and any snow that does fall will have a difficult time sticking initially.

In other words, this will be a very different storm than our last one 20 days ago. (The remnants of which are still on the ground, of course.)

As forecast models (and meteorologists) struggle to keep up with the last-minute wiggling and waffling of this storm, there are a lot of numbers being thrown around. I have literally seen snow accumulation predictions between 0 and 12 inches. I am leaning hard on the "low but not zero" end of that scale in this forecast. And I will have one more opportunity to update that on Sunday before the storm arrives.

Let's talk about what to expect and how it may affect your holiday weekend plans.

Timing

Nothing has changed regarding the timeline of this storm: It is still going to affect New Jersey in the late Sunday to early Monday time frame. Mainly an overnight storm — that colder middle-of-the-night timing is a very important factor in this becoming a snowier situation for part of NJ.

Sunday will be a cloudier and cooler day than Saturday, with highs limited to about 40 degrees.

First raindrops will likely push into southwestern New Jersey around 4 p.m. Sunday afternoon, give or take. Scattered light rain will then spread north and east through the early evening hours.

Areas approximately along and north of Interstate 195 will likely be cold enough to experience all (or mostly) snow (rather than rain) for the duration.

The brunt of the storm, with the heaviest and most widespread precipitation is forecast to be between 9 p.m. Sunday night and 3 a.m. Monday morning. Firmly during the overnight hours. As precipitation intensity picks up, the zone just south of I-195 and down the I-295 will at least see some mixing with snow, if not a full changeover. While I would not rule out snowflakes in far southern New Jersey, I think it's just going to be a wet situation there.

Snow and rain will dial back after 3 a.m., ending completely by about 6 a.m. (For the record, sunrise will be just before 7 a.m.)

The rest of President's Day Monday will be mostly cloudy and dry, with high temperatures in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. As long as there are some peeks of sun, it should help with the melt. (Again, in stark contrast to the frigid late January snow/ice storm.)

Accumulations

As I mentioned, there are numerous factors related to temperature that will make it hard for substantial snow to pile up, including a relatively warm antecedent ground condition, a very wet snow-to-water ratio (below 10:1), and the mixing/rain factor. These can be overcome, especially in the colder northern half of the state. But this is why I am steering far away from any "big" snow totals at this time.

I think it makes sense to paint a broad area of 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulation across the sweet spot of northern-central New Jersey from Sunday night to Monday morning. That's enough to potentially shovel and slow down travel on untreated roads. Major highways should be fine.

To the north, Warren, Sussex, and Passaic counties will fall out of the main snow bands. So I expect snow totals to come up shy of an inch there.

Just to the south of the snowfall sweet spot, temperatures in the mid 30s will prevent straight snow for a good chunk of the storm. There still could be an accumulation of slush, ice, and snow through the colder overnight hours, possibly up to an inch.

And for southern Ocean, southern Burlington, Atlantic, Cape May, and Cumberland counties, you could pick up a good half-inch of rain. But snowfall will be very limited (or non-existent).

Impacts / Advisories / Action Steps

This situation really does not have the ingredients coming together to be a major winter storm for New Jersey. It's close — within a matter of a few degrees. But those few degrees often make all the difference.

As usual with a "regular snow storm" (not an "ice storm" or "blizzard"), the biggest concern here is travel. Roads could get very slick, visibility could be very low in steady snow, and too many Jersey drivers are stupid on a good day. Luckily, the overnight timing will help as many New Jerseyans will be tucked into their nice warm beds, rather than galavanting out and about on the roads during the storm.

No official advisories have been issued for this storm at this time. (The National Weather Service forecast is a bit more conservative than mine, with only an inch of accumulation in spots.) There could be some advisories issued before the storm arrives, but warnings seem highly unlikely.

There is no need for a "bread and milk" run here, folks. Think carefully about your Sunday night and Monday morning plans. Plan accordingly, if you can, to not travel during the storm — especially during that core "brunt" period during the late evening and early morning hours when the impacts will be greatest across the Garden State.

What's Next?

After the storm, we can look forward to more high temperatures in the 40s this week. But we do have more active weather ahead, including a chance for wintry mix and/or snow Wednesday and then scattered rain at the end of the week. (For the record, I would love to see some rain to help melt the glacier of snowpack that grips the Garden State from January's storm and deep freeze.)

As for the President's Day weekend storm, I will publish another comprehensive forecast update around mid-morning Sunday. Given the meager snow totals and overnight timing, this is not necessarily an "all hands on deck" situation for our team, but we are on standby for whatever impacts come along and whatever critical information needs to be passed along.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.