NJ weather: Weekend starts great, ends unsettled
The Bottom Line
I love September weather. And we have at least one (and maybe two) perfectly sunny, dry, mild early September days ahead. There are still some coastal concerns to mention though, as the Atlantic Ocean remains all churned up.
The second half of the weekend is trending "iffy," as clouds and raindrops return to the forecast. In fact, the entire period from Sunday to Monday to Tuesday will be unsettled. It looks like we'll pick up an inch of total rainfall in that time frame. That is good news, especially as two-thirds of New Jersey is officially in drought at this time.
We're all clear for Friday morning. It is a comfortable start to the day. Even comfortably cool in spots, with inland temperatures in the 50s.
Expect mostly sunny skies, zero rain, and low humidity Friday. Temperatures will be seasonable, meaning very close to the long-term averages for this time of year. Once the sun comes up, thermometers should shoot up quickly to around 80 degrees. Overall, a gorgeous day.
There is one wrinkle in this otherwise beautiful forecast. And that is the Jersey Shore. We'll start Friday with a continuation of the northeasterly wind that has kept the ocean all churned up since midweek. So, once again, a high risk of dangerous rip currents is posted for the beaches, with ocean wave heights holding steady at 3 to 5 feet.
In addition, once again, we'll have to be on the lookout for minor category flooding along tidal waterways at high tide Friday evening. That will be around 8 p.m. along the Atlantic Ocean, 11 p.m. for back bays, and closer to 2 a.m. up the Delaware River.
Friday night will be very similar to the previous night. Mainly clear, calm, dry, and comfortable. Low temperatures will once again dip to around the 60-degree mark.
Looking good. For the most part.
I have had to increase cloud cover a little bit for Saturday - let's call it "partly sunny". And it does look like the warmest day of this week, with highs between about 80 and 85 degrees. But humidity levels will remain relatively low, keeping away the muggy uggies.
A late-day Saturday shower (5 p.m. on) is not impossible. But the forcing isn't great, and available moisture is very low. So I have opted for a dry forecast. If anything does develop, it would be light and isolated. Higher rain chances will hold off until the second half of the weekend.
This forecast has gone downhill a bit too. Based on the latest forecast model data, I think we could see spotty to scattered rain showers dampening New Jersey at any time on Sunday.
Will it be a total washout? Nope. And again, rainfall looks relatively light, with totals during the day less than a tenth of an inch. If we do get a band of heavier stuff and/or some rumbles of thunder, it would most likely hold off until juicier air comes in late Sunday night.
Meanwhile, Sunday will be a much cloudier and more humid day. (Dew points will bump into the 60s - so not overly tropical, at least.)
As a result of the definite cloud cover and the potential rain, Sunday's high temperatures will cool off a bit, to the 70s.
Probably the epicenter of our next round of wet weather. But even so, I'm not seeing a "total washout" soaker. (Nothing like this past Tuesday, for example.)
We will tap into some rich atmospheric moisture though, raising the concern for localized downpours (pushing rainfall totals past an inch). And given the humidity and relative warmth in the air, there could be some rumbles of thunder. (Severe weather seems unlikely.)
So Monday is not looking like a great day for extended long-term activities. You might catch some peeks of sun in between raindrops. And high temperatures will reach the upper 70s to around 80. Probably the most humid day of the week too.
Tuesday & Beyond
Raindrops will probably linger into Tuesday morning through midday (at least), before we start to see improvements. The day could start with one more burst of heavy rain. But I'm optimistic skies will start to brighten by late afternoon or early evening Tuesday. That would help push high temperatures back over the 80 degree mark.
On Wednesday, we will benefit from the arrival of a much drier and slightly cooler air mass. That will bring a return of beautiful September weather. Sunny skies, upper 70s, and breezy at times.
Another string of bone-dry weather should carry through the final weekend of summer. In fact, another blast of really dry air could bring widespread low temperatures in the 40s by next weekend. A taste of autumn in the air?