Stormy and steamy NJ: Waves of thunderstorms on the way Thursday

Thursday is going to be an active, changing, and occasionally stormy day for New Jersey. Several waves of showers and thunderstorms will ride through the state Thursday morning, afternoon, and early evening. Heavy rain (1-2") and severe weather (including gusts wind and an isolated tornado) are possible. In addition, it is going to be uncomfortably humid, with both temperatures and dew points in the 70s. Friday will be better, as a morning shower gives way to peeks of sun and only moderate humidity through the afternoon. On balance, the weekend looks OK. But I think a batch of rain will dampen some outdoor activities from late Saturday through midday Sunday.

(Also, be sure to see the special Tropical Weather section below for a discussion on some potential surf and weather trouble brewing in the Atlantic for next week. Lots of hype swirling around a pair of storms — let's separate fact from fiction.)

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Thursday NJ weather: Waves of thunderstorms

This is a warm front-cold front day, driving a day of unsettled and potentially nasty weather. First, a warm front pumps in even more humid air. Then the enhanced lift ahead of a cold front will use that warm, humid air as fuel to produce some soggy, stormy weather later on.

Will it rain all day? No, there will definitely be lulls. But several waves of showers and thunderstorms are likely through Thursday morning, afternoon, and evening. And the chance for downpours and severe weather — specifically gusty winds and an isolated tornado — are elevated here.

We start the day with temperatures in the 70s, although warm and steamy. Overnight thunderstorms have exited, so we will be in one of those lull periods through the morning commute.

Pockets of rain will resume soon enough. In the meantime, it will be mostly cloudy. Temperatures will likely stay in the 70s for the duration Thursday.

Once sunset passes, storm activity should start to pulse down. The overnight hours will stay cloudy and muggy. Low temperatures will only dip a few degrees, to the upper 60s or so.

Friday NJ weather: Drying out, moderate humidity

Friday will be a better weather day. Humidity levels will go down a little bit, but not all the way.

I think we could still see a few showers around NJ through Friday morning. But then peeks of sun look likely into the afternoon.

High temperatures will recover nicely, pushing to about 80 degrees. Again, turning into a nice weather day.

Saturday NJ weather: Good day, wet night

There are aspects of the weekend forecast you will like. But rain chances have gone up, and I fear some outdoor plans may be in trouble.

Through the daytime hours on Saturday, expect a mix of sun and clouds. Again, humidity levels will be "moderate" with dew points in the 60s — you may notice some stickiness in the air, but it will not be tropical or overly uncomfortable. High temperatures will settle around 75 to 80 degrees, quite pleasant for late September.

The problem will come late Saturday, as a storm system bubbles up from the south and drives more wet weather into New Jersey. Some models paint initial raindrops as early as 4 or 5 p.m. But I heavily favor later solutions, keeping us dry until more like 10 or 11 p.m. The best chance of initial rain will be to the south and east. I don't think anything heavy or severe will be a concern.

Sunday NJ weather: Mixed bag, still unsettled

Sunday morning's forecast has trended wet too. I think scattered rain will be with us through about midday, before dry weather and mostly cloudy skies take over through the afternoon.

High temperatures on Sunday will nudge down to the lower to mid 70s.

New Jersey's weather forecast for next week is completely in flux, depending on what happens in the tropics.

Tropical NJ weather: Humberto and a tropical wave

Let me talk about the two storms that are brewing in the Atlantic, and then I will discuss how those storms may or may not affect New Jersey next week.

First, Tropical Storm Humberto (pronounced "oom-BAIR-toe") became the 8th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season on Wednesday. It is currently about 450 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands on the edge of the Caribbean Sea and 1,600 miles southeast of New Jersey. Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph.

Humberto is expected to become a monster major hurricane by Monday, as it tracks between the U.S. mainland and Bermuda. Almost all model guidance pushes the storm safely out to sea, without direct impact to any land masses. While that is not a sure bet, slam dunk call, the most likely scenario is for Humberto to be only a rough surf machine for the Jersey Shore.

Meanwhile, 600 west of Humberto over the Dominican Republic, is a tropical wave officially dubbed Invest 94L. This system is expected to become organized and get upgraded to a named tropical storm ... eventually ... But that may not happen until late Friday or early Saturday, until it reaches the open waters of the Atlantic. The next name on the list is Imelda. (I will not call this storm "Future Imelda" as some have — I will not use the name until it becomes official.)

Imelda will be weaker than Humberto. But it will also track closer to the U.S. East Coast. Forecast models are also much more unsure on the track. For instance, the operational GFS shows a South Carolina landfall early next week, while the operational European favors an out-to-sea track.

This forecast is especially complicated because Humberto and "the other storm" will be close enough to interact with each other. There is even a phenomenon called the "Fujiwhara effect" when two storms (often hurricanes) tend to "dance around" each other and transfer energy between each other. More specifically, I think the stronger storm (Humberto) would have the tendency to alter the track of the smaller storm.

(By the way, if the term sounds familiar, it is probably because Hurricane Jose did a similar dance around Hurricane Maria just off the NJ coast in 2017.)

The bottom line: Surf impacts are practically a sure bet next week. Rain and wind impacts are possible, depending on the ultimate track, size, and intensity of the yet-to-be-named storm. But direct weather impacts are far from a guarantee. Any such issues are still 5 or 6 days away at this point, so there is plenty of time to figure things out.

There is a TON of hype swirling around these storms. But let's be very careful, and ground this forecast in reality. I think we'll have more confident details to report this weekend, once the storm has a name and is over the Atlantic again. Until then, please be patient, ignore the hype, and stay tuned for the latest.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.