Minor weather changes for NJ, no substantial rain for over a week

This is still an all-around solid weather forecast. And yes, forecast models resoundingly agree that no more than a Trace of rainfall is expected in New Jersey through the middle of next week. Having said that, a storm system soaking the southeastern United States will throw some clouds our way Tuesday. And maybe some sprinkles too. We also still have Canadian wildfire smoke in the atmosphere, potentially leading to air quality concerns. The sun will come out on Thursday. High temperatures all week will generally be in the comfortable 80s.

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Tuesday NJ weather: Cloudy, humidity, and a few raindrops

There's really not much going on here. In general, this is a great weather forecast — if you picked this week for summer vacation or summer camp, you really lucked out. But I am going to do my job and pick out a few minor hiccups that may get in your way, as we do have some subtle changes to talk about here.

First of all, Tuesday morning is noticeably warmer than every other morning so far in August. Temperatures are in the 60s, rather than the 50s. That is due to a blanket of clouds streaming overhead in addition to a slight uptick in humidity. Again, noticeable, but nothing crazy.

High temperatures on Tuesday will be comfortably warm, reaching the lower to mid 80s. That is about 5 degrees cooler than Wednesday and slightly below normal for this time of year. With an on-shore breeze, the Jersey Shore will be the cool spot in the state, in the 70s.

That on-shore breeze is also keeping the surf churned up. A moderate risk of rip currents is posted once again for Tuesday.

A storm system is soaking the southeastern United States this week, and will have some impact on our weather. At the very least, it will throw lots of clouds toward New Jersey throughout Tuesday. There will still be peeks of sun, of course, especially the farther north in the state you go.

Some spotty shower activity also can not be ruled out, again stemming from that southern storm system. Best chance for that looks to be late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.

One more important note: New Jersey remains on the southern edge of a smoke plume, stemming from Canadian wildfires. Most of that smoke remains in the upper atmosphere, leading to hazy skies only. However, on Monday, North Jersey came very close to a higher category of unhealthy air — so this situation is worth watching, in case thicker or lower smoke does come our way.

Because of the clouds and increased humidity, Tuesday night's low temperatures will only dip into the mid 60s. Seasonable and comfortable — it is August, after all.

Wednesday NJ weather: More of the same

More of the same kind of "OK" weather for Wednesday. I will call it mostly cloudy. I can not rule out a sprinkle. And high temperatures will settle in the lower 80s. Not too hot, not too cold. Just right.

Thursday NJ weather: Sunshine returns

On Thursday, sunshine returns to the Garden State, upgrading our weather from good to great. High temperatures should remain comfortably warm, in the lower 80s with humidity levels still in the low to moderate range. Can't complain about that kind of weather in the middle of summer at all.

Friday NJ weather:

An excellent end to the workweek is ahead, with mostly sunny skies, dry weather, and highs about 80 to 85 degrees.

Saturday NJ weather:

The weekend forecast also looks good. Although fair warning: A warming trend will lead to some hotter temperatures by early next week.

For Saturday, I'm seeing more sunshine, a fresh southerly breeze, and highs pushing into the mid 80s.

Sunday will flirt with 90, again with hazy sunshine.

Long-range models show more 90s for next week. (And some guidance pushes into the heat and humidity "danger zone" once again.) By midweek, we may be ready for our next round of widespread rain and thunderstorms.

Of course, the big wrinkle in this entire forecast is the tropics. This is the time of year when the Atlantic fires up, with about a month to go until the climatological peak of the hurricane season. In addition to Tropical Storm Dexter, pushing away from the USA mainland, there are a couple areas under investigation at the moment. If something does develop, the medium to long range forecast can become quite variable. Again, just something to keep in mind when we start talking about the 5+ day outlook this time of year.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.