NJ weather: Two more days of chilly temps, watching weekend storm

The Bottom Line

Technically, Wednesday is a cold front day. But the new air mass arriving is just a reinforcement of the cold air already in place. So impacts will be very minimal — a few clouds, maybe a flurry, and a couple more days of unseasonably chilly temperatures.

A warmup kicks in later this week, leading to a couple of pleasant December days.

We are starting to pay closer attention to another potent weathermaker at the end of the weekend, Sunday into Monday. This one looks even better organized and more impactful than last weekend's storm. Multiple inches of torrential rain may cause flooding, with gusty winds possible too. There are some important questions we have 100+ hours to resolve: When will the storm arrive? When will it depart? And is there any risk of wintry weather?

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Wednesday

Overall, very similar to Tuesday. Especially in terms of temperatures.

It's a status quo morning, cold and quiet. Grab a coat as thermometers start the day in the 20s (inland) to 30s (urban and coast).

High temperatures Wednesday should reach about 40 to 45 degrees. (Leaning mainly toward the upper end of that range.) Sunshine should dominate the sky, although expect a few passing clouds along the way. Winds will stay relatively light, with an occasional breeze. And there could be a quick flurry somewhere too.

The biggest effect of that weak cold front I mentioned above will be a cold Wednesday night. Low temperatures will dip into the mid 20s for most. I suspect it will be a freeze for most (if not all) of New Jersey through Thursday morning.

Thursday

The coldest day of the week. But that means things will only improve from here.

Despite mostly sunny skies, high temperatures on Thursday will only reach about 40 degrees. Some points in northern and inland central NJ may not get out of the 30s all day. That is a January-ish brand of cold.

At least there will not be any biting wind chill or dramatic winter weather to deal with.

Friday

A shift in the winds will spark a little warmup. It is not going to get "warm" per se, but definitely more comfortable.

High temperatures on Friday should push to about 50 degrees — a full 10 degrees warmer than Thursday, and in the neighborhood of 5 degrees above normal.

With sunny skies, a light westerly breeze, and dry weather, Friday should be a nice December day.

Saturday

Saturday looks good too. Even though clouds will steadily increase through the day, we will stay high. High temperatures are forecast to bump into the lower 50s.

Sunday & Beyond

Our weather turns active and complicated again for Sunday and Monday. Our next weathermaker is a coastal storm system setup — a very different beast from last weekend's cold front.

Let me lay out some bullet points on this storm system, in terms of what we know now (over 100 hours before onset).

—Forecast models are pumping out some impressive rainfall totals, on the order of 2 to 4 inches over a span of 24 hours. Flooding back on the table.

—Gusty winds too, potentially sparking power outages.

—Wintry weather chances appear very limited, with temperatures in the 50s and even 60s for the duration.

—Worst weather looks to be after sunrise Monday morning. It does not look like a nice weather day at all.

—There is some question about the storm's end time. The GFS model shows the low stalling and lingering through Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday too with additional (light to moderate) rain. I do not like this solution, favoring a clean exit and subsequent cooldown.

Still plenty of time to dial in the details, and figure out what happens next. The brunt of this storm will hit exactly one week before Christmas — with lots of people traveling next week, the forecast will be an important one. As always, we will keep you posted on the day-by-day play-by-play.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.