NJ weather: Three chances of rain through the rest of April

The Bottom Line

If you liked Monday's weather, you'll enjoy Tuesday's forecast too. Bright skies, comfortable (although below normal) temperatures, light winds, and dry weather.

But we do have more active, unsettled weather to talk about. In fact, there are three chances of rain coming up over the next week: 1.) Spotty showers late Wednesday. 2.) Steady rain Friday into Saturday. 3.) Heavy rain Sunday into Monday.

While start/end timing is quite hazy — especially for #2 and #3 — we have a good shot at a good soak. Maybe 2 to 3 inches total by the end of April. That would be wonderful — we sure need it.

Meanwhile, temperatures will be stuck at or below normal for the duration. A welcome change of pace after a very warm April so far.

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Tuesday

Another relatively pleasant, quiet weather day.

You will want to grab a jacket Tuesday morning, as temperatures have dipped into the 30s and 40s. Some frosty spots are possible, especially in NW NJ.

The day will begin with gorgeous sunshine, before scattered clouds roll in Tuesday afternoon. We'll keep light winds, dry weather, and (very) dry air.

High temperatures will reach about 60 degrees Tuesday afternoon. If I had to guess, I'd say thermometers will be a degree or two cooler than Monday. Not much to write home about.

Tuesday night will be uneventful and familiar too. Partly cloudy, with lows near 40.

Wednesday

Our weather starts to turn downhill Wednesday. You will probably need the umbrella at some point. But it will not be a total washout of a day.

Wednesday morning actually looks fine, with clouds mixed with some sun and only an isolated shower chance. Starting around early afternoon, spotty showers will come into play. There could even be some rumbles of thunder. But nothing crazy — the risk for severe weather and flooding downpours is low. Total rainfall may hit a quarter-inch or half-inch, if we are lucky.

Showers may linger into Wednesday night. But it's only raindrops — no snowflakes — as temperatures dip into the 40s.

Thursday

A couple forecast models depict showers hanging over New Jersey through mid-morning Thursday. But I would wager the vast majority of Thursday will be dry and relatively pleasant.

I am calling the day mostly cloudy. But that still allows for peeks of sun. And temperatures will be seasonable — quite possibly the warmest day of the week, with highs around 60 to 65 degrees.

Rain may creep in from the west Thursday night. However, the most substantial piece of our next next storm system will hold off until Friday.

Friday-Saturday

Storm system #2 looks like a healthy soaking, especially for the southern half of the state.

The challenge here is timing. The GFS model shows a damp and dismal daytime Friday, with persistent rain, clouds, and cool temperatures. But the Euro model favors later timing for the rain, soaking NJ from Friday night into Saturday instead.

The truth is probably in the middle here. I suspect Friday will be the wet day, and we will salvage (most of) Saturday.

In either case, all model guidance suggests over an inch of rain is possible, bullseyed on the southern half of the state. Keep it all in perspective — despite the fact your outdoor plans may be in jeopardy, we really need the rain.

Sunday-Monday

One more powerful storm system is modeled to pass over New Jersey in the Sunday to Monday time frame. Again, there are timing differences — which I am less concerned about since first raindrops are still 120+ hours away.

In any case, this could be the most significant storm system of the week. Buckets of rain, ferocious winds, and the potential for severe weather may accompany a strengthening area of low pressure.

This is one to watch — especially if you have outdoor activities planned for the final day of April or the first day of May.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.