NJ weather: Heat scales back, humidity and storms here to stay

The Bottom Line

The numbers are in, and we are officially coming off the hottest couple days of the entire year. On Thursday, one weather station at Fort Dix hit 100 degrees. Meanwhile, Newark Airport broke another record high, reaching 96.

The ferocious heat is done, and temperatures will slowly scale back through this weekend. However, humidity will remain. And we have to talk about thunderstorms and rain — every day of the next week carries a rain chance in the forecast.

Plus, there is a major hurricane brewing in the Atlantic that could have impacts on NJ late next week.

Wow. All of a sudden, New Jersey's forecast has become very busy. Let's dive in.

Friday

We are sweating again Friday, although thermometers have fallen out of the "extreme heat" zone.

Maybe it's just me, but the air feels a little more comfortable Friday morning, even though temperatures are once again in the 70s.

Highs on Friday will come closer to 90 degrees. Not everyone in the state will hit 90+, but plenty of inland locations will. (For the 6th day in a row, by the way.)

Factor in humidity, and the heat index ("feels like" or "apparent" temperature) will push into the mid to upper 90s. Not quite in the 100+ degree danger zone, but close.

Friday's Heat Advisory has been shaved away, to only include the urban core of northeastern New Jersey: Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic, and Union counties. The advisory expires at 6 p.m.

We have to talk about some stormy weather for Friday too. Already on radar, I have seen a few popup thunderstorms form. So we have to keep that chance in the forecast all day. Very isolated and very brief.

Then, a weak cold front will cause a more organized cluster of scattered thunderstorms to develop over New Jersey. Given our hot, humid atmosphere, any storms that form will likely become strong or severe quickly.
—Timing... Late afternoon (3 p.m.) to evening (Midnight).
—Biggest Concerns... Gusty winds and heavy downpours.
—Geography... Strongest storms will likely form along and west of the NJ Turnpike.

Storms will exit later Friday evening, likely leaving the Jersey Shore largely unaffected. We will dry out overnight, but skies will stay mostly cloudy. And it will still be sticky, as lows again only descend into the lower 70s by Saturday morning.

Saturday

Saturday will not be a perfect weather day. But the forecast is looking brighter and drier than it had been, so that is good news.

We will begin Saturday with mostly cloudy skies. It will be warm, with highs climbing into the mid 80s. (Akin to a typical midsummer day.) And it will still be very humid too.

Rain chances will be limited on Saturday. But I do think we will see some hit-or-miss showers develop in the afternoon and evening hours. While I think calling these pockets of rain "thunderstorms" would be an overdramatization, there could be some downpours around. That's the element that would get in the way of your outdoor plans Saturday.

Bottom line: More dry hours than wet hours, but be prepared in case a shower comes to visit your neighborhood.

Sunday

I am still thinking Sunday will be the cloudier, wetter day of the weekend.

As skies turn overcast, high temperatures will only reach the lower 80s. (That is close to normal for early September, by the way.)

As Sunday afternoon arrives, a broader piece of energy will likely spawn a more widespread area of rain over New Jersey. I'm still not sure if we're facing "several hours of steady statewide rain" or just a period of scattered, occasional raindrops. Once again, the risk of downpours will be present, lasting through Sunday night.

Monday & Beyond

Early next week has some potential for pleasantries. Both Monday and Tuesday will have a shower or thunderstorm chance. Isolated to spotty though, as I think there will be breaks of sun around too. High temperatures will hold steady around the lower 80s.

A slow-moving cold front is expected to drive an extended period of steady rain from next Wednesday into Thursday.

Hurricane Lee

In the last 24 hours, Hurricane Lee has exploded in the hot waters of the tropical Atlantic, becoming a Category 5 major hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph. If it intensifies further, it could become one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.

Lee's forecast track has not changed, as it curves between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda next week. Model guidance still favors a track that keeps the center of Lee several hundred miles east of New Jersey.

However, it is becoming more and more likely that we will have coastal issues from Lee's close fly-by. Rough surf may cause beach erosion. Storm surge could bring several rounds of coastal flooding.

Although next week's cold front does look to protect us from extreme weather impacts, I would not completely rule out weather impacts (wind and rain), if the storm nudges west.

If there are alarm bells to be rung, we will do so early next week. This is still a highly uncertain forecast — the storm is 2,000 miles away, after all.

Tropical Storm Margot has also formed, behind Lee. It is expected to become a fish storm, curving harmlessly out to sea.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.