NJ’s forecast, by the numbers: 1″ of snow, 50 mph wind, -15° wind chills

Big changes are ahead in New Jersey's weather forecast, as winter is set to return over the next 72 hours ... with a bang! First comes a bit of snow, then comes ferocious wind and ridiculous cold. Thursday will be fine. Starting with temperatures in the teens. Highs will be slightly cooler than the rest of the week, around 30 degrees. It will be mostly sunny, calm and dry. Friday turns cloudy, and then we will see a batch of evening snow showers slide in with light statewide accumulations possible through Friday night. Saturday is arctic blast day, and it's going to hurt. Wind gusts kick up to 50 mph in the morning, sending temperatures plummeting from the 20s to the single digits. Wind chills will go as low as -15 degrees. Sunday stays in "dangerous cold" territory, with highs no better than the teens. And then things will slowly warmup next week.

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Thursday NJ weather: Sunny but cooler

We are coming off a streak of three mainly above-freezing days across the Garden State. (A few spots in South Jersey even hit 40 degrees this week!) But the party is over, folks. Temperatures are already trending cooler. And I suspect many New Jersey towns will begin a new stretch of continuous below-freezing days on Thursday that will continue through early next week.

Thursday morning is cold, with temperatures mainly in the teens. Highs will reach about 30 degrees, give or take. It will be a mostly sunny day, with dry weather and a noticeable breeze.

Thursday night stays quiet, although it will be quite cold again. As clouds roll in, lows will bottom out around in the teens once again.

Friday NJ weather: Evening light snow

Most of Friday will be uneventful, although skies will become cloudy pretty quickly. High temperatures will be similar to Thursday, near 30 degrees.

The big concern will come late day, as a batch of scattered snow showers develops and slides across New Jersey. The earliest possible snowflakes would be the late afternoon hours, around 3 or 4 o'clock. More likely, substantial snow holds off until later Friday evening, in the 8 or 9 o'clock hour.

The issue will come if snow showers become squall-ish — locally heavy — which could cause visibility and traction issues for those out and about.

I am saying total accumulation will end up about an inch across the state. Realistically, the range for potential snowfall will be about a half-inch (south) to an inch and a half (north/east). Yes, everyone could see a little bit of fresh snow on the ground by late Friday night. Mainly on cold, untreated surfaces like grass, roofs, cars, etc.

Saturday NJ weather: Very windy, very cold

Oof, Saturday is going to hurt. If you have outdoor plans, you want to consider how necessary they are, and how you are going to protect yourself against intense cold and wind.

Early Saturday morning, temperatures will be in the mid 20s. Already cold.

As a strong arctic cold front slides from northwest to southeast across the state, a strong wind will kick up. Gusts will blow out of the northwest as high as 40 or 50 mph throughout the day.

Temperatures will plummet to around 10 degrees by the afternoon. Even colder.

As we discuss often, the real danger from frigid weather comes from the combination of cold and wind, rapidly carrying away your protective body heat. That is why the wind chill calculation is so important.

Wind chills on Saturday may drop as low as -15 degrees. That is squarely in "dangerous cold" territory. You can run into big health issues — frostbite and hypothermia — within just 15 minutes if you don't properly bundle up and protect yourself from the elements in such conditions.

Low temperatures Saturday night will drop to around 0. Winds will lighten up a little bit. But the wind chill will still hover in the negative teens.

Sunday NJ weather: Dangerous cold continues

This degree of cold wind literally takes your breath away.

Highs on Sunday will only reach the mid teens. Wind speeds will continue to decrease, but a bitter breeze will keep the wind chill only around 0 degrees at best.

Otherwise, Sunday will feature a mix of sun and clouds. Models try to put a snow shower over New Jersey, but I think the air will be too dry for anything substantial to form here.

Temperatures will moderate next week, although the warming trend will be slow. 30s and calmer winds should make for more comfortable conditions by Tuesday and Wednesday. We will have a shot at 40s by the second half of next week.

Along with the warmup will come a trend toward more active weather. There are some storm system signals in the long-range models for late next week. And given the warmer air in play, any storm system that does come along may not be a straight snow-maker. Our next one could be a wintry mix of snow, ice and even rain. (Of course, rain would do wonders in melting our glacial snowpack that is caking New Jersey at the moment.)

We will deal more with any potential storms early next week. For now, we are focused on Friday evening's snow and this weekend's ridiculous wind and cold.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.