As cool weather continues, NJ will get clipped by rain and snow

Tuesday will be another chilly, breezy day with sun turning to clouds and high temperatures in the upper 40s. A storm system will move in from the southwest starting Tuesday evening, producing a period of widespread light to moderate rain across New Jersey through Wednesday morning. There is a chance that some of that rain changes over to snow for northern and western New Jersey, with light accumulations possible — but again, I expect most of New Jersey to be wet and not wintry overnight. Wednesday and Thursday stay dry and cool, but calm. Another chance of rain showers will come into play on Friday, along with the warmest air of the week pushing temperatures into the 50s. It is still too early for a stab at the big Thanksgiving week forecast.

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Tuesday NJ weather: Watching rain and snow

There are two notable changes to the forecast, regarding our next storm system:
1.) The timing, now arriving later than previously expected.
2.) A farther north trajectory, with more of New Jersey now in play for some precipitation.

The bottom line: Most of New Jersey will get wet Tuesday night. Precipitation type could get interesting here, with a changeover to snow now looking more likely for at least northwestern New Jersey.

Tuesday begins with sunshine, light winds, and cold temperatures near the freezing mark. At least cold air is not so bad when skies are bright and there is no biting wind chill.

By midday, clouds will start to increase and it will become breezy once again. A sprinkle is possible at some point Tuesday afternoon, although the daytime hours should stay dry and relatively quiet.

High temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 40s. Still below normal for mid-November.

Beyond sunset, a batch of rain will slide in from the southwest. First raindrops in New Jersey will most likely be around 7 or 8 p.m. As rain spreads to the north and east, everyone in the state could get wet overnight. Total rainfall will range from a few hundredths of an inch in North Jersey to upwards of a half-inch in South Jersey.

As temperatures drop overnight, both at the surface and up in the atmosphere, there will be an opportunity for rain to change to snow. The best chance for wintry conditions will be after Midnight, to the north and west. Low temperatures will average upper 30s across the state.

The colder, higher elevation northwest corner of New Jersey would be most prone to see snowflakes and potentially a healthy coating of snow on the ground by daybreak Wednesday. (Some models go as high as an inch or two, but that feels overdone to me.) If temperatures drop cold enough and fast enough, I think we could see snowflakes as far south as Mercer County, around the I-195 corridor.

Again, conditions will be mainly wet and not necessarily wintry. Accumulations and travel impacts should be very limited. Just stay alert to potentially inclement weather overnight.

Wednesday NJ weather: Cool but calm

Showers will most likely wrap up in the early Wednesday morning hours, although I could see some raindrops and/or snowflakes lingering through mid-morning (say, 9 a.m.)

The rest of Wednesday will be mostly cloudy, cool, and calm. That's right, no brisk wind to battle against this time around.

High temperatures will only reach the mid 40s Wednesday. A full 10 degrees below the seasonal long-term average for this time of year.

Thursday NJ weather: Clouds and sun

Thursday will be an OK weather day overall. New Jersey will see periods of clouds interspersed with occasional sun. Winds will stay light. And hopefully temperatures will inch closer to 50 degrees.

Friday NJ weather: Spotty showers, not as cold

Another weak disturbance will ride through NJ's atmosphere on Friday. I do not expect much more than a few spotty rain showers from this one, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. There will be pockets of dry weather, and anything that falls from the sky will be light.

Even so, Friday may very well be a dreary and cloudy day overall. At least high temperatures will finally push into the seasonable 50s. For one whole day.

A shower may linger into Saturday morning. Then skies will clear, and temperatures will slide backward to about 50 degrees on a chilly breeze.

The forecast for early next week stays quiet, with highs holding steady around 50 degrees for Sunday and Monday. If all goes well, both days should feature plenty of sunshine and dry weather to begin the big holiday week.

As for the rest of Thanksgiving week, there are some forecasters out there who are offering some awfully confident calls already. It'll be cold! It'll be warm! It'll be dry! It'll be wet! I think it's way too early and long-range models are way too uncertain to be going there just yet — to be frank, there's too much "weather" in the way between now and then to make any kind of confident forecast. There are 9 days until Thanksgiving — coming soon, but in the meteorology world still a ways away.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.