Hot days, warm nights, stormy weather ahead
Summer will be in full swing for the first half of this week, with increasing temperatures, humidity, and storm chances.
Here are your weather headlines for Monday, July 6, 2015...
Back to Work: Warm, Humid
Whether you were among the lucky in New Jersey to avoid Saturday's raindrops, or not, Sunday turned into a gorgeous summer day. There are some subtle changes ahead for Monday, as skies turn from blue to grey.
Clouds have been increasing this morning from the southwest, and some showers have been trying to cross the Delaware Bay into New Jersey. The models keep a chance for showers in South Jersey through this afternoon, but there's nothing too heavy or widespread popping up. I think it's safe to characterize today as mostly dry (if not totally dry) for the Garden State.
Despite the mostly cloudy skies, temperatures on Monday will be similar to Sunday, in the lower to mid 80s. Humidity will slowly increase today and especially tonight. That will lead to a muggy and warm evening and overnight with temperatures around 70° and the possibility of dense fog for Tuesday morning.
It will definitely be feeling like summer by midweek, as temperatures slowly rise into the upper 80s on Tuesday and the lower 90s on Wednesday. Yes, it will be quite humid too. And unfortunately, there won't be much wind to keep the hot air moving, so Tuesday afternoon and most of Wednesday could get pretty uncomfortable. The beach should offer some relief from the heat, but temperatures will likely be in the 80s at least, and you'll only need to go a few miles inland to find those 90s on Wednesday. Ocean temperatures are wonderfully warm, in the 73° to 78° range up and down the Jersey Shore.
A cold front late Wednesday should drop temperatures a little bit and drop humidity significantly by Thursday. For now, the going forecast keeps daytime temperatures at or above normal through next weekend.
We're diving into yet another week with yet another "stalled front" setup, keeping the chance for showers and storms in the forecast every day this week. As I mentioned previously, today will be dry for the vast majority of the state, with just a few showers and sprinkles creeping into South Jersey.
It's hard to pinpoint the timing and location, but we'll see another chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon. The warm temperatures and high humidity will likely help to fuel some heavy downpours will be possible, if storms do form.
Speaking of thunderstorms, Wednesday will be the day to watch this week. With temperatures soaring well into the 90s, we'll have plenty of instability (energy). With dew points close to 70° (indicating high humidity), we'll have plenty of moisture. And an approaching cold front will act as the trigger for thunderstorm initiation. I expect some strong to severe storms in the neighborhood Wednesday afternoon, with heavy downpours and gusty winds the biggest potential threats. It's a similar setup to that big severe wind event in South Jersey two weeks ago - but I don't want to set off those alarm bells yet, by any means. For now, whether you have specific outdoor plans or not, it is worth watching the forecast and staying vigilant as this potentially volatile atmosphere sets up.
Behind the cold front, Thursday and Friday will be slightly cooler and drier, but showers and thunderstorms remain possible - especially Thursday night into Friday morning.