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The Bottom Line

Welcome to our new, drier air mass. After four days in a row of clouds, unsettled weather, and murky skies, New Jersey is looking much clearer and more comfortable now.

Thursday's weather nuisance will be a stiff breeze, possibly enough to blow over a few light garbage cans. But sunshine, dry air, and seasonable temperatures will compensate.

Friday will be the coolest day of the week, with a mixed bag of sunshine and clouds.

And then the final weekend of October will be seasonably cool and mainly dry.

We are carefully watching the Halloween forecast on Monday, which looks at least partially wet.

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Thursday

Overnight, skies have largely cleared. And dew points have started to drop, as humidity gets zapped from our atmosphere. New Jersey's newly arrived air mass is much drier and slightly cooler than the last one.

As that air arrives, a brisk northwest wind will probably gust over 20 mph at times Thursday.

Otherwise, we'll bask in sunshine, with dry weather and dew points descending into the 40s. Look for high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s. That's pretty close to normal for October.

Thursday night will be our chilliest since the weekend. Winds will lighten up, but there will be a light breeze. That will probably prevent temperatures from crashing and widespread frost from forming. Most of NJ should bottom out in the lower 40s by Friday morning. The coldest corners of the state — the northwest corner and the heart of the Pine Barrens — could see 30s and patchy frost.

Friday

Overhead, you'll find more clouds than sun for much of Friday. The northeasterly breeze (note the direction shift) will be lighter than Thursday, in the 15 mph vicinity.

Friday will also likely be the coolest day of the week, with highs limited to the upper 50s. That's only a hair below normal for this time of year. But probably cool enough that you'll want a jacket all day.

Saturday

Saturday's forecast is tricky, with an off-shore disturbance in play. That will be enough to increase cloud cover for southern and eastern New Jersey. And maybe even spit out a sprinkle early Saturday morning. (The chance and impacts of which are so low, I am excluding it from my on-air forecast.)

Farther inland, sunshine and thin high clouds should win the day. High temperatures will end up close to 60 degrees Saturday afternoon. Not bad, by late October standards.

Sunday

Cloud cover will be thicker and more pervasive on Sunday. But I am maintaining a dry forecast. High temperatures will climb into the lower 60s. Again, we'll call that seasonable.

The Extended Forecast

Our next substantial rain chance is coming up on Monday. Unfortunately, Monday is Halloween. It's not all spooky, scary news for trick-or-treaters though.

It looks like a period of scattered showers will impact the entire Garden State early next week. Forecast models are all over the place in terms of timing potential pockets of steadier, heavier rain. Maybe Monday morning. Maybe Monday evening. Possibly even holding off until Tuesday.

So trick-or-treating won't be a washout. But you may have to have umbrellas in hand, depending on timing and geography. This is one of the most important forecasts of the year, so we will update you regularly as the forecast evolves.

November will begin with lingering showers on Tuesday, followed by clearing skies. High temperatures may touch 70 degrees again through the middle of next week. With low humidity and sunshine this time around.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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