Breaking down NJ’s wild weather swings: Warm to rainy to cold

The Bottom Line

This week's weather has been amazing so far. Spectacularly springlike, with temperatures running 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal normals.

We have two more days of mild temperatures ahead, in the 50s and 60s. Then thermometers play ping-pong, as a daily battle wages between cold and warm air.

Some rain is expected Wednesday night into Thursday, although temps will stay mild for one more day.

Then Friday will be windy and cooler.

Then Saturday will be windy and warmer.

Then Sunday will be very cold. Back to winter and back to bundling up.

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Wednesday

I am a bit surprised at how cold it has gotten this morning in select corners of the Garden State. Pockets of NW NJ and the Pine Barrens are in the 20s. Meanwhile, urban and coastal areas are in the 40s. Most of the state is leaning toward the warmer end of that wide range. Just keep in mind, conditions will vary depending where you are — you might want to stick a toe out the front door this morning to see what kind of coat or jacket you'll need.

Once the sun comes up, we will warm up quickly. Highs will reach the mid 50s Wednesday afternoon. Yes, a few degrees cooler than Tuesday — which got as "hot" as 65 degrees in New Jersey. But still running well above normal for this time of year. And still a spectacularly pleasant day.

Most of Wednesday will be bright and sunny, before clouds roll in starting late afternoon. The daytime hours stay dry, with a light (but noticeable) breeze blowing out of the west.

Wednesday night, cloud cover will continue to increase. And we will see scattered showers creep in eventually. Best chance for raindrops overnight will be to the north and west. Overnight lows will average lower 40s.

Thursday

Thursday will be inclement, damp and dreary. But it is not a total washout. And what falls from the sky should be on the light side.

Expect pockets of rain through both the morning and afternoon hours Thursday. South Jersey could very well stay dry until after lunchtime. I can't rule out a late-day rumble of thunder, although forecast models have largely backed off that idea in recent runs.

Total rainfall could reach about a quarter-inch. Not much. And again, just to be clear, total snowfall will be zero.

High temperatures on Thursday will still be on the mild side, in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. So if you can catch a break of dry weather and even a hint of bright sky, you may have an opportunity to enjoy the springlike weather again. (You could argue Thursday is just a different flavor of "springlike" weather.)

Around sunset Thursday, rain chances will come to an end as a cold front ushers in a colder, drier air mass. It will turn breezy Thursday night, as temperatures drop quickly to the 30s by Friday morning.

Friday

Friday will be cooler. But I am not calling it cold — this is just a correction from "ridiculously warm" to "seasonable".

Friday will be bright and sunny, and completely dry. The wind will be a nuisance, gusting to about 25 or 30 mph.

High temperatures should reach the mid 40s Friday afternoon. Once again, that is close to the long-term averages for the final day of February.

Saturday

Saturday is the first of March. And we will welcome the new month with lion-ish weather, as both a warmup and cooldown are expected on this busy weather day.

I think the biggest highlight of Saturday's forecast will be a gusty wind. Much more than just a "nuisance," we could see top gusts over 40 mph. That may warrant some alarm bells for power outages, minor damage, and driving difficulties.

High temperatures on Saturday will range from the mid 40s (north) to mid 50s (south). Back to the mild side for one day.

A midday cold front could spark a quick shower, although Saturday should be mainly dry.

Temperatures really tumble Saturday night, deep into the 20s by daybreak Sunday.

Sunday & Beyond

It's back to bundling up next week, New Jersey.

Sunday's high temperatures will only reach the mid 30s — a far cry from this week's 60s. It will be breezy and blustery, although also bright and sunny.

Monday stays chilly, with sunshine and highs closer to 40 degrees.

And then we should see temperatures moderate to more seasonable levels through midweek. There is a storm system signal in the Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday time frame. My gut is pointing toward plain rain, although the European model favors a snowier scenario for New Jersey. We'll deal with that in more detail once it gets closer.

Looking long-range, weather in a word for the first half of March? Volatile. Just like March should be. There are probably equal chances of accumulating snow and temperatures in the 70s — and we could easily achieve both milestones by the first day of spring.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.