A bit of relief for NJ: Humidity dials back, heavy rain coming up

The Bottom Line

What's this, some good news in the forecast?! We get a break from the ferocious heat and suffocating humidity?! Woohoo!

The effects of a weak cold front will settle in by Thursday afternoon, pushing humidity levels downward across all of New Jersey. It is still going to be a very warm summer day, close to 90 degrees. But as dew points descend from the steamy 70s to the sticky 60s, the change will be very noticeable and very welcome.

It is important to note: There are no warnings or advisories posted for New Jersey on Thursday.

Our next storm system rolls in Friday, with on-and-off rain expected through Friday night and even Saturday morning. Rainfall could become very heavy at times. Over an inch of rain is looking likely. Some models even go as high as 2 or 3 inches of total rainfall for parts of NJ.

And then the heat is on again. Another string of 90+ degree days will begin this weekend, lasting through at least the middle of next week.

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Thursday

Many spots in New Jersey picked up about a half-inch of rain overnight. Those showers did absolutely nothing to quash the thick humidity. Nor did they cool us down at all.

But that taste of sweet relief is coming. As our weather dries out Thursday morning, drier air will be working in from the west as well. Do not expect it to become "cool" or "refreshing". But the drop in dew points will be a big improvement.

Temperatures will rise from the 70s early on, to the upper 80s to around 90 degrees Thursday afternoon. A few degrees cooler than Wednesday. Not everyone in the state will hit 90 degrees this time around — but I am confident someone will, making this the 8th and final day of this heat wave.

Expect increasing sunshine and a bit of a breeze throughout Thursday. We should stay rain-free for the duration.

Thursday night will be less muggy. But again, not quite cool or comfortable. Low temps should bottom out around 70.

Friday

The aforementioned cold front will turn back around as a warm front on Friday, which will do two things. First, humidity will increase again. And second, waves of energy riding along that frontal boundary will produce pockets of rain over New Jersey.

So Friday will be wet and stormy at times. But not all day — it will not be a washout.

Initial showers may bubble into the southern half of the state between Midnight and daybreak Friday morning. By Noon, scattered rain may be affecting the entire state, with additional raindrops through the afternoon and evening hours. Again, on-and-off stuff.

Some of those pockets of rain could become heavy at times, as our atmosphere taps into a rich stream of moisture. Rumbles of thunder are likely too. Severe weather (wind, hail, tornado) is not impossible, but the threat is low overall.

With the raindrops and clouds, the heat wave will be broken. I think thermometers will average lower 80s Friday afternoon. Realistically, the wettest corners of the state could get stuck in the 70s. On the flip side, any little bit of sunshine could push temps into the mid to upper 80s in spots.

Saturday

The big question about this impending storm system is how long it will linger over New Jersey. The GFS model favors an exit early Saturday morning, with rain ending by 8 a.m. But the European model keeps rain overhead through about midday, maybe even 1 or 2 p.m. (The NAM agrees with the later timing, but its accuracy has not been great lately, especially 48+ hours out.)

And here's the thing: The most moisture-rich air will be in play Saturday morning. So if rain continues, that's going to be the best opportunity to get totally drenched. The severe weather risk may consequently tick up a bit early Saturday too.

The bottom line for now: You may have to keep your Saturday morning plans flexible.

I am confident that drying weather and increasing sunshine will take over for Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will respond, jumping right back to the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. If we hit 90+, it would be the start of our next Jersey heat wave.

Sunday

Right back to the heat and humidity. Partly sunny skies. Lower to mid 90s. A chance of a late-day popup shower or thunderstorm, but very isolated.

The Extended Forecast

The heat builds through Monday and Tuesday, with widespread 90s and possibly even 100-degree temps in play.

Our next cold front is plugged in for Wednesday or Thursday. If it holds off until Thursday, Wednesday will be another day of uncomfortable, unbearable heat.

That front should deliver more much-needed rain. And then, we should enter a more seasonable, much less humid air mass. We have the potential of falling into some truly beautiful summer weather late next week. But there are still several steamy, stormy hurdles to cross before we can confidently make that call.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.