The Bottom Line

Monday was gross. The amount of moisture in the air was pretty ridiculous. You could feel the humidity, of course. And then the atmosphere just wrung itself out like a sponge, with up to 2 inches of heavy rainfall.

Tuesday will be a very different story, as we resume beautiful, not humid weather.

A warming trend will take over through the final days of June, with each day about 5 degrees hotter than the day before. That will probably culminate in NJ's first heat wave of the year, as June turns to July.

And that brings us to the 4th of July weekend. It looks like the holiday forecast will play out in three parts. Hot to start. Then stormy and wet. Then turning pleasant again, just in time to celebrate America's birthday.

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Tuesday

This is going to be a gorgeous June day. One of those days where if you don't get outside, open windows, and/or bask in warm sunshine for a few minutes, you will probably regret it.

Our transition to dry air is still taking place, as of this writing (6 a.m.) There is still a hint of mugginess to start the day, especially along the Jersey Shore. And some very localized patches of dense fog. But dew points are dropping, so everyone will taste deliciously dry air by mid-morning.

Early clouds and fog will give way to sunshine and blue sky Tuesday. No rain, no storms. It will be warm and not humid, with high temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80. (It's worth noting that is about 5 degrees below normal for late June.)

Rip current risk has decreased to Low along the Jersey Shore. Thumbs up for a Tuesday beach day.

We'll follow up the beautiful summer day with a pleasant, comfortable summer night. Low temperatures will dip to around 60 degrees, with just a few clouds overhead.

Wednesday

Another nice day. Although noticeably warmer, as a southwest breeze kicks in.

Once again, we'll enjoy sunshine with passing clouds. High temperatures will push into the 80 to 85 degree range. We can call that seasonable — typical for this time of year.

A very weak impulse will pass across New Jersey Wednesday evening. So I can't rule out a sprinkle, especially in North Jersey. However, the vast majority of the day and the state will remain high and dry.

Thursday

We'll close out June on a summer note. Thursday will be a mostly sunny and very warm day. High temperatures will hig about 85 to 90 degrees. The background southwesterly wind should be light enough for a sea breeze to set up, keeping the Shore much cooler through Thursday afternoon.

Friday

Possibly the hottest day of the week, as high temps surge into the 90s. It will be hot, humid, and breezy (20 mph). In this case, the background southwesterly wind might prevent a sea breeze, keeping mainland beaches pretty hot.

We'll see a mix of sun and clouds throughout the day. There is no risk of getting wet from showers or thunderstorms. Just sweat.

The Extended Forecast

The start of the 4th of July holiday weekend is now at the tail-end of the 5 Day Forecast. And I have mixed news, with a cold front in the forecast. Realistically, there is something for everyone here between Friday and Monday.

I think the holiday weekend will play out in three parts:
1.) Hot, from Friday into early Saturday.
2.) Wet and stormy, from late Saturday into Sunday.
3.) Nice, for 4th of July Monday.

The timing and speed of a cold front will dictate how everything plays out. It will rain at some point this weekend. It will probably thunderstorm. But how long will the front linger on Sunday, keeping clouds and showers over South Jersey? And what will happen to temperatures through the second half of the weekend? Those are the big question marks to resolve as the forecast evolves.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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