The Bottom Line

The tropical humidity finally broke Monday night. Even though Tuesday won't be steamy or stifling, it's still going to be scorching hot. But this will be New Jersey's last 90+ degree day for a while, as cooler temperatures prevail.

Several waves riding through the atmosphere will also result in several rain chances over the next few days. There's a big payoff coming at the end of the week: another stretch of beautiful bone-dry weather.

Tuesday

Another sweaty, sultry, summery day.

Since Monday, our air has dried out ever so slightly - dew points have descended from the mid 70s to the lower 60s. Still sticky, but much less steamy and stifling.

So we have a decent summer morning underway, with temperatures ranging from the 60s (inland) to the 70s (coast). Come 8 o'clock this morning, thermometers will shoot up rapidly, thanks to the (relatively) dry air and rising sun.

Skies will remain mostly sunny today, as high temperatures surge to the lower 90s across most of the state. The Shore will end up at least a few degrees cooler, thanks to the sea breeze effect.

The daytime hours should stay dry. However, a weak impulse looks to ride through New Jersey's atmosphere Tuesday evening. A batch of showers will try to drive through. But I don't see any huge flooding or severe weather concerns. Even raindrops aren't a sure bet - the farther north in NJ you are, the better your chance of seeing a few hundredths of rainfall.

The rest of the overnight will be partly cloudy with lows dipping to around the 70 degree mark.

One more item worth noting here. Remember last week's smoky sky, a result of wildfires out west? It's back - a shift in the jetstream will put that smoke back in our upper atmosphere for the next few days. The density of smoke particles looks minimal on Tuesday, with concentrations increasing on Wednesday.

Remember, the smoke is hanging about 6 miles overhead, leading to a milky, washed-out sky at times. But if some of that fine particulate matter mixes down to the surface, there could be some air quality concerns again too.

Wednesday

Definitely cooler. And an OK day. I was hoping to call Wednesday "perfectly pleasant," but a continuing chance of a spot shower or thunderstorm will stay with us, especially late-day.

High temperatures will average lower 80s across New Jersey on Wednesday. To the northwest, it will be slightly cooler, in the upper 70s. To the southwest, it will be slightly warmer, in the mid-upper 80s.

Thursday

Likely the wettest and stormiest day of the week, but not a total washout. Also the cloudiest and coolest day of the week.

To start, it's going to be an unsettled day, with cloudy skies. High temperatures will only reach the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.

One or two patches of scattered rain will pass right over New Jersey during the day Thursday. At the moment, the steadiest rain looks to be from late morning through late afternoon. Additional showers and thunderstorms may linger into Thursday night.

For the most part, we're just looking at "plain rain" Thursday. The air will be "humid enough" to sustain steady to heavy stuff. But we're not tapped into a stream of super-rich tropical moisture - so the threat for widespread flooding seems limited.

In addition, severe weather parameters are not pointing toward an outbreak. There will be moderate instability in the atmosphere, measuring about 1000 CAPE. So there will be lightning and thunder. And some storm cells could spit out some gusty winds.

Friday & Beyond

I say it every summer. I don't care what Mother Nature throws our way during the week. Heat, humidity, thunderstorms - bring it on from Monday through Friday. As long as we can maintain great weather for the weekend.

And things are indeed looking great late this week. Rain should wrap up completely by daybreak Friday, as our new air mass moves in. And you're going to like that air mass, as it will be cooler and dramatically drier.

Dew points should fall into the comfortable 50s on Friday. As skies clear to sunshine, we'll keep a northwesterly breeze up to 20 mph throughout the day. With high temperatures recovering to the seasonable mid 80s, it looks like a fantastic day.

Saturday looks good too, although slightly cooler. Mostly sunny and dry. Widespread 50s in the morning. Afternoon highs in the lower 80s.

August kicks off Sunday, with temperatures warming into the mid 80s. Clouds will increase too. And we could see a few showers and thunderstorms pop on Sunday. Although I don't think it will be steady or widespread, so don't cancel your plans yet.

Temperatures will hold steady, at or below normal, through early next week too. After such a hot and wet July, August is starting off rather tame and pleasant!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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