Pleasant weather Tuesday across NJ, but strong storms coming

The Bottom Line

Our two-day cold snap has come to an end. Warmer air will allow for above-normal temperatures for the next two and a half days. Before thermometers tumble again, and the cycle repeats.

Because Tuesday will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Sunday and Monday, in the 50s, I have no hesitation calling it a pleasant day.

Wednesday, however, will be an active and potentially stormy weather day for New Jersey. It will not be a total washout. But a period of heavy rain and gusty thunderstorms is looking more and more likely. And unfortunately, that nasty weather is timed to coincide directly with Wednesday evening's rush hour.

Another blustery cooldown will settle in for the late part of the week. Not quite an arctic blast this time, as high temps only settle back to seasonable levels in the 40s.

There have been some murmurs about potential snow this weekend. But I am unconvinced and unimpressed.

Get our free mobile app

Tuesday

Looking good!

I have no hesitations in calling Tuesday a nice day, even though the sky will feature more clouds than sunshine at times. (Accuweather)

Tuesday morning is another chilly, crisp, frosty start, with temperatures in the 20s and 30s.

But high temps should reach into the 50s by Tuesday afternoon. That is firmly above normal for early March, making for a nice, mild day all around.

Tuesday will be mild and pleasant, as high temperatures shoot well into the 50s. (College of DuPage Meteorology)

I am not sure we can call the sky "bright," as clouds are interspersed with breaks of blue sky and some sun. Winds will be on the light side, and our weather stays dry. No issues in New Jersey.

As humidity levels creep upward, Tuesday night will not be as cold as the last two nights. Look for lows in the lower 40s or so — not a freeze.

Wednesday

Wednesday will turn wet and stormy eventually.

But the morning looks OK. Clouds will fill in the sky, and a spot shower is possible at any time. We will remain in our warm-ish air mass, allowing for high temperatures to soar well into the 50s. (I would not rule out 60+ degrees, if parts of the state stay dry long enough and see peeks of sun.)

Wednesday turns wet and potentially stormy, from about mid-afternoon through the evening hours. (Accuweather)

Rain chances will really ramp up starting mid-afternoon Wednesday, going through at least the early evening hours. A solid band of rain will push in from the west, likely leading to a few hours of wet weather all across New Jersey. Rain will probably be heavy for a time. Total rainfall may approach a healthy inch.

In addition, an embedded line of thunderstorms is expected to develop late Wednesday, which will produce even heavier rain along with potentially damaging wind gusts. Hail and an isolated tornado are possible too.

Wednesday's severe wind outlook shows a risk for damaging gusts around New Jersey, especially to the southwest. (Accuweather)

Unfortunately, that stormiest, nastiest weather will probably be around the 4 p.m. to 6 p.m. window, coinciding with the evening rush hour.

HRRR high-resolution model forecast as of about 4 p.m. Wednesday, showing a sharp line of gusty thunderstorms sweeping across New Jersey. (College of DuPage Meteorology)

After we dry out late Wednesday night, the immediate temperature drop will only be slight, into the upper 40s on average around the state.

Thursday

Thursday will be a day of transition, as a cold front opens the door to cooler air once again.

By around midday Thursday, the wind will kick up dramatically. Gusts to 40 mph are possible.

Temperatures are tricky to pinpoint for Thursday. The daily "high" temperature will happen in the morning, probably in the 50s. But thermometers will slide backward into the 40s through the afternoon. Again, turning quite blustery.

Skies will range from mostly to partly cloudy on Thursday, and we should stay dry. The wind and cooldown are the big headlines here.

Cooler air returns later this week, but it will not be a big, bad, dramatic arctic blast. (Accuweather)

Friday

Friday has the potential to be a decent, seasonable early March day. I am wondering if the wind will be a nuisance though, potentially back in the "breezy" category throughout the day.

It should be bright and sunny Friday, with high temperatures in the upper 40s. Again, that is "par for the course" for this time of year.

Saturday & Beyond

There are only two weekends left of winter. 'Tis the season for St. Patrick's Day parades, the spring sports season kicking off, and kids begging their parents to take them to the park.

This weekend looks like a mixed bag. And honestly, there are some big factors in play here that lead to a less-than-confident forecast at this time.

A batch of spotty showers are possible early Saturday morning. Just some snowflakes and/or raindrops, and then the rest of the day will be dry. Expect clouds giving way to sun, a stiff breeze, and highs in the mid 40s. Cool, but not cold. Decent, but not quite nice.

Sunday is a bit of a question mark, as model guidance has shown a storm system clipping New Jersey from the south during the day. Since we will be on the northern side of that storm, that would be the snowy side. Both the operational GFS and European models show up to an inch of snow accumulation in southern New Jersey.

But let's hold our horses for a minute here. This setup does not scream "Snow day!" to me. The chance of wintry weather is certainly too shaky to warrant the hype that is already floating all over the internet.

This one falls in the "worth watching" category for now.

5 DAY FORECAST: New Jersey Weather Center