Latest update on this weekend’s snow and wintry temperatures for NJ

The Bottom Line

As cold weather continues to grip New Jersey, we now watch with bated breath as a fast-moving clipper system flies our way. As it swings through from Saturday night into Sunday morning, much of the state will see the first accumulating snow of the season. (In fact, this will be New Jersey's most impactful winter storm in over 10 months, since February 11-12, 2025.)

It's not a "major" storm. It's not a coastal storm or nor'easter. It's not a "messy," multi-impact storm. It's a few inches of snow. Enough to snarl travel due to poor traction and reduced visibility. And enough to make the second half of the weekend feel especially wintry.

With less than 24 hours to go until peak wintry impacts, let's talk about the latest storm timeline and expected accumulations. And we can't ignore or undermine the extreme cold that will settle in during and after the storm too.

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Timeline

Saturday daytime stays quiet, with mostly cloudy skies and a light breeze. Temperatures will be unseasonably chilly of course, for the 17th day in a row. Highs will reach about 40 degrees. While a snow shower is possible around the late afternoon hours, wintry weather will not be a concern until well after sunset.

Late Saturday evening (between 8 p.m. and Midnight) will mark the arrival of snow, generally from southwest to northeast. Light in intensity at first, becoming steadier (let's call it "moderate snow") through the overnight hours.

This will be an almost all snow event for New Jersey. But along the immediate coast, rain or sleet may mix in during the first few hours of precipitation. (That may or may not ultimately have an effect on accumulations — more on that later.)

Early Sunday morning (4 a.m. to 7 a.m.), just before sunrise, will likely be the brunt of the storm, featuring the steadiest and most widespread snowfall across the state. Once sunrise passes (7 a.m. to 10 a.m.), snow will start to substantially taper off to the north and west.

Late Sunday morning will bring an end to falling snow, although blowing snow will continue through the afternoon as a chilly breeze kicks up. We will see partial clearing, but temperatures will tumble through the 20s with wind chills in the teens for the remainder of the day. Very wintry.

Accumulations

Since my last comprehensive forecast update Friday morning, I have made some tweaks to the snowfall outlook.

The sweet spot for snow totals still looks to be central and southern New Jersey, especially away from the coast. I expect a wide swath of 3 to 5 inches of fluffy snow to accumulate there. (My thought in increasing from my previous call of 2-4" is that there's more evidence for 3" than 2", and I am worried about overperforming snow intensity and snow ratios. So 3-5" makes more sense as a final forecast here.)

As I mentioned, the immediate coast is trickier. It is going to snow and stick at the Jersey Shore this time around. But will it be lighter than inland areas? And will it start as rain and/or a mix of rain, sleet, and snow? If either of those answers are "yes," totals will be lower. That is why I am sticking with 1 to 3 inches for the southern portion of the Shore.

Finally, North Jersey, this is not really your storm. I am becoming increasingly confident that dry air will shut off your shot at the biggest snow accumulation. I still have to paint a broad stroke of 1 to 3 inches of accumulation here. (But I have to tell you, this is my biggest question mark of the entire forecast — could we end up with only a dusting or coating on the ground in far North Jersey?)

Advisories

The National Weather Service has issued a series of Winter Weather Advisories, cautioning of treacherous travel conditions. (Note the geography and timing have been adjusted since they were initially issued on Saturday.) Advisories go into effect for the following counties for the following times:

From 7 p.m. Saturday to 7 a.m. Sunday... Hunterdon, Morris, Somerset, and Warren counties.

From 7 p.m. Saturday to 1 p.m. Sunday... inland Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, and Salem counties.

From 10 p.m. Saturday to 1 p.m. Sunday... eastern Bergen, Essex, Hudson, eastern Passaic, and Union counties.

From 1 a.m. to 1 p.m. Sunday... coastal Atlantic and all of Cape May counties.

Advisory criteria is 2 to 3 inches of snow accumulation within 12 hours. Note that we do not have warnings posted here — that would highlight a much more serious and impactful situation, with at least 5 to 6 inches of total snowfall.

Impacts / Action Steps

Travel is, of course, the biggest concern here. Roads will become slippery during and after the storm. And visibility will be reduced due to falling and blowing snow. If you have to be out and about late Saturday night or especially Sunday morning, leave plenty of extra time and be extra careful.

This will be shovelable or even plowable snow for many New Jerseyans. And with the plunging temperatures, you will want to clear the snow as quickly as possible so it does not freeze into a sheet of solid ice. Clearing via leafblower may be an option, given the anticipated dry, powdery nature of the snow. Just be courteous to neighbors, drivers, etc.

What's Next?

It is going to get ridiculously cold behind this storm, as arctic air is exacerbated by a brisk wind and fresh snowpack.

Low temperatures Sunday night will dip into the teens, with wind chills in the single digits. That is approaching "dangerous cold" territory — a phrase we do not use lightly, and one you should take seriously. Grab your heaviest winter gear and bundle up!

Monday will feature a mix of sun and clouds and a continuing chilly breeze. High temperatures will only reach the upper 20s — below freezing all day.

Tuesday will recover to around the freezing mark, in the lower 30s. Wednesday will be closer to 40. And Thursday-Friday could touch 50 degrees. Finally some relief from the relentless unseasonable chill. There will be a chance for rain showers in the Thursday-Friday time frame too. We will also be watching the chance for more wet weather next weekend.

As this first winter storm of the season rolls in, our team is fully mobilized to bring you the latest conditions from around the state and keep you informed. Keep an ear on your radio and an eye on our web site, app, and social media feeds for the very latest. And please reach out with any storm reports, photos, or traffic tips you have to share.

As always, stay smart and be safe out there. And enjoy the snow!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.