NJ weather: Up to 2" snow and a half-inch of rain Sunday night

The Bottom Line

Sunday marks three weeks since New Jersey's last winter storm. The remnants of which are still laying on the ground — although we did see some great snow and ice melt on Saturday, thanks to sunshine and temperatures near 50 degrees.

President's Day Weekend is notorious for being one of the most volatile weather weekends of the year. So it makes perfect sense that we have a storm system driving a chance for snow and rain.

Forecast models have been all over the place in terms of impacts and snow accumulations this week from this storm, but have finally coalesced nicely into a reasonable solution. (I have tweaked my snow map geography accordingly, and come down on snowfall totals to follow the latest trends.) I am highly confident there will be an area of light to moderate snowfall, leading to minor to moderate snow accumulations for part of New Jersey. While far from a "major" winter storm, this mix of wet and wintry weather will make for slippery travel conditions and reduced visibility late Sunday night through early Monday morning.

What falls from the sky and sticks to the ground is wholly dependent on temperatures. The fact this will be almost exclusively an overnight storm will help temperatures stay cold enough to sustain snow for most. But the ground has warmed up a bit, limiting stickage. Snow ratios will be very heavy and dense, limiting initial accumulations. And there will be some mixing involved to the south and along the coast, as temperatures end up right around the freezing mark.

Let's jump in to the latest forecast, so you can see a full breakdown of what to expect before, during, and after Sunday night's storm.

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Before the Storm

Sunday daytime will be OK. Just OK. Not nearly as pleasant as Saturday. But wet, wintry weather problems will not arise until the late afternoon hours, at the earliest.

Expect mostly cloudy to overcast skies, which alone will keep temperatures cooler. We are starting off chilly, near 30 degrees. And highs will struggle to reach about 40 for a high, give or take. (North Jersey will likely see upper 30s, South Jersey will probably make it into the 40s again.) There will be a prominent breeze out of the east up to 15 mph.

During the Storm

Starting around 4 or 5 p.m. Sunday afternoon, light rain will push into southwestern New Jersey, spreading north and east through the early evening hours. By 8 or 9 p.m., that precipitation should be pretty widespread across the state. And I expect it will be cold enough at onset for areas along and north of Interstate 195 to see all (or mainly) snow. South of I-195 should expect rain or wintry mix to start.

The brunt of this storm, with the heaviest and most widespread rain and snow will be from about 8 or 9 p.m. through about 2 a.m. That is when the bulk of any accumulation will occur in the snowfall "sweet spot" through the middle of the state. And when travel conditions will be trickiest. Luckily, this will happen overnight, when most New Jerseyans are in bed and off the roads.

Between about 2 a.m. and 6 a.m. Monday morning, light snow and rain will taper off from west to east. So the storm will be all done by daybreak, although residual snow, ice, slush, and puddles will remain through the morning commute. Major, treated roads should fare well for the duration, especially with temperatures close to the freezing mark. I doubt there will be many (if any) travel difficulties by midday Monday.

Final forecast for Sunday night's snow and rain, as of Sunday morning. (Dan Zarrow, Townsquare Media)

North Jersey: Light Snow Only

Northern New Jersey, from the I-78 and I-80 corridors to the New York state line, will be cold enough for all snow. And this sector of New Jersey will be closest to another piece of energy sliding by to the north. But I think precipitation stays too light here to really be a factor. Yes, you will see some snow. But only on the order of a coating to an inch.

North-Central Jersey: A Couple Inches Possible

In the middle of the state, there will be a "sweet spot" where the heaviest bands of precipitation will coincide with temperatures cold enough to produce an all-snow situation. Keep in mind, my snow map is an approximation of where this area will be, between about the Interstate 78 and Interstate 195 corridors — but you may need to blur your eyes a bit, depending upon where those steady bands of snow actually set up late Sunday evening.

This area seems good for a solid inch or two of fresh snow accumulation. I could see some totals approaching 3 inches, but latest guidance suggests that will be the exception and not the rule. That is why the National Weather Service has foregone issuing advisories for this area — for now — as we stay under that 3" benchmark.

Still, 2 inches of snow is more than enough to make streets, steps, and sidewalks slippery. And it may have you reaching for the shovel Monday morning.

Central-South Jersey: The Mixing Zone

Just south of the sweet spot, weather conditions will be messy, but not necessarily snowy. With surface air temperatures right around or just above freezing, the I-295 corridor to central Burlington and Ocean counties will likely see a period of wintry mix — both rain and snow. That will not accumulate in the traditional sense, but it will be slushy and slick.

I think there is a chance this area changes to all snow after Midnight, leading to some light accumulations. Hence the forecast of a coating to an inch. But don't expect much on the ground here — it will mainly be wet and slushy.

South Jersey: Rainy and Wet

While South Jersey will see the heaviest precipitation from this storm, with up to a half-inch of liquid falling from the sky, it will stay almost all liquid with temperatures in the mid 30s. Rain, rain, rain. With maybe a little bit of snow at the very tail end Monday morning, but not enough to accumulate on the wet ground.

Rain could lead to slippery roads and low visibility by itself, or course. And it should cause substantial snow melt across the southern quarter to third of the state. Finally.

After the Storm

Several waves of active weather are forecast to affect New Jersey in the coming week, which will hamper our previously advertised warmup. We will not return to the "arctic blast" conditions of the last several weeks — but don't expect widespread 50s+ either.

Monday will be mostly cloudy and cool, with most high temperatures in the 30s. As Sunday night's storm system ejects out to sea, I could see one round of minor coastal flooding during the morning high tide cycle.

Tuesday looks pleasant and seasonable, with partial sunshine and highs in the 40s. We might see some 50s in South Jersey.

Our next batch of potentially messy weather arrives on Wednesday. Once again, this is "not quite a snow storm, and not quite a rain storm" with a wintry mix expected at times. We will dial in those impacts further once Sunday night's storm is in the rearview mirror.

Thursday looks quiet, before yet another storm system arrives Friday. That one currently looks like a rainmaker.

5 DAY FORECAST: New Jersey Weather Center