Another snowy Sunday for NJ: Double-digit snowfall, blizzard conditions possible

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For the latest storm forecast information, please refer to my newest weather blog post.

Call it a nor'easter, a coastal storm, a winter storm, a potential blizzard, a snow storm, a snow bomb, a mess, or a beast. It's coming for New Jersey, and we have a wintry, windy, and wild second half of the weekend coming up. (For those NJ teachers and students hoping for a #SnowDay on Monday, you might just get your wish!)

After hemming and hawing for several days over a very complicated and highly uncertain forecast, we finally have reasonable agreement among forecast models about how Sunday-Monday's storm might play out. And the current call is a doozy, a significant snow storm for at least the Jersey Shore and possibly most of the state.

This forecast falls squarely between the "Something" and "Everything" scenarios I posited in Thursday morning's weather blog entry. I am not quite leaning into the "OMG, two feet of snow" possibility just yet. But we are talking about double-digit snowfall for at least part of New Jersey. And the possibility of near blizzard conditions.

Definitely Trending Snowier

Here are the reasons why I believe this will be a significant winter storm for New Jersey:
❄️ A strong area of low pressure will track close enough to the coast to produce very heavy snow bands, strong winds, and coastal flooding. In addition, another disturbance to the west (inverted trough) will help to enhance inland snowfall.
❄️ The "complete miss" escape route is off the table. All model guidance now paints at least some wintry weather impacts for all corners of the state.
❄️ This will be almost an all snow situation. There will likely be some rain and/or wintry mix at onset for southern and coastal New Jersey. But as temperatures crash, that will almost certainly change over to snow by the time heavy stuff arrives.
❄️ As you know, it really doesn't take much snow to snarl traffic in our tiny congested state of New Jersey.
❄️ Snow fatigue. Not only are we tired of snow, so you know Mother Nature is going to deliver more. But also, streets and parking lots are still lined with giant plow piles from the last storm four weeks ago. That may be an extra burden in clearing heavy snow this time around.

There are some reasons why I'm holding back from this becoming a truly blockbuster blizzard that some have been hyping:
🚫 The initial period mixing and/or rain may hamper snow totals.
🚫 There will be a sharp cutoff between truly heavy snow and moderate snow. Where that occurs in New Jersey — and whether that occurs over New Jersey — is anyone's guess at this point.
🚫 Any shift in the storm track of even 30 to 60 miles will significantly affect snow totals. These coastal storms are incredibly difficult and frustrating to pinpoint.
🚫 To get the perfect "snow bomb" of a storm, it would need to linger in perfect position, at extreme strength. And I'm just not sure that is guaranteed to happen.
🚫 If the storm track gets too close to the coast, part of New Jersey could end up on the warm side of the storm, leading to more mixing and dramatically lower snowfall.

Statewide Winter Storm Watch

The National Weather Service pulled the trigger on a Winter Storm Watch for all 21 counties of New Jersey, from 6 a.m. Sunday morning through 6 p.m. Monday evening.

A watch serves as a formal heads up that hazardous winter weather may occur. More specifically, in New Jersey, a watch is issued if at least 5-6 inches of snow are expected. Once a storm is within 24 hours of arrival, a watch is either upgraded to a warning or transitioned to a less severe advisory instead.

(The NWS smartly painted this watch with a broad brush with respect to timing and totals. Once warnings and advisories come out, I expect we will have a better sense of timing and totals for the state — in other words, when the weather is truly going to get dangerous for each county, and how bad they expect it to get.)

Approximate Storm Timeline

Slow start Sunday morning. Light snow and even rain to start, with surface temperatures in the mid 30s.

Conditions will start to go downhill Sunday afternoon, as snow starts to accumulate. Any areas of rain or wintry mix should become all snow by sunset as temperatures drop below freezing.

The brunt of the storm, with the heaviest and most widespread snow will be Sunday night, from sunset to sunrise. 1+ inch an hour snow likely — possibly much higher along the Jersey Shore, combined with a marked increase in wind.

Snow will start to taper off through the Monday midday hours, ending by mid-afternoon. It will remain cold and breezy, with wind chills possibly stuck in the teens.

Accumulations

I decided to keep things relatively simple for this first call snow map. My goal for my next attempt (Saturday morning) is to get a little more detailed and nuanced.

The highest snow totals will occur closest to the center of the low pressure, which will be along the Jersey Shore. My forecast calls for 6 to 12+ inches of total snow accumulations. The "plus" is very important here, as some forecast models go way higher than a foot — as high as two feet, even. I'm not ready to go there yet, for the reasons I listed above. But we are keeping that overperformance possibility in the back of our minds.

Farther inland, you will miss out on the truly heaviest snow bands. But Sunday-Monday will still be wintry. For now, I think 3 to 6 inches is a reasonable call for total snowfall. But as with the coastal region, I am concerned about those totals needing to go up up up, if the storm keeps trending the way it is.

Impacts

As always, the worst impacts will be for those who dare to travel during the height of the storm. Slippery roads and low visibility are likely for several hours due to falling and blowing snow. Air delays and cancellations are highly likely.

Gusty winds will be quite strong, forecast to reach 40 to 50 mph during the height of the storm Sunday night, which may lead to downed trees and sporadic power outages. That is not a good situation any time, and especially during a winter storm.

Because of those strong storm-driven on-shore winds, coastal flooding is a concern too. Tidal guidance is showing moderate flooding at high tide Sunday night, followed by another crest above minor flood stage Monday afternoon.

This one may also approach blizzard conditions at the Jersey Shore — not something we see often. A blizzard requires sustained winds or frequent gusts to 35 mph, obscuring visibility below a quarter-mile for at least three hours. It has nothing to do with how much snow falls. It's all about an extended period of highly dangerous, near whiteout conditions.

Bitter cold is expected too. With temperatures just below the freezing mark, wind chills will be in the teens and 20s. Here we go again.

Action Steps

It is time to carefully consider your plans for Sunday and Monday. While you might be OK early in the day, the later it gets the sloppier the roads will be.

It is time to stock up on supplies. For now, this will not be a "bread and milk" storm, where you will be stranded for days on end. But you will want to make sure you have groceries, batteries, gasoline, etc.

Be proactive. If you do have somewhere to be, think about leaving early or going after the storm is wrapped up.

And keep an eye on the forecast throughout the weekend. This is still a volatile situation, and things are still subject to change with 36 to 48 hours to go until first flakes. I believe the snow forecast could increase or decrease over time, so you should have multiple ways to stay informed.

What's Next?

My next weather blog update will come out around mid-morning Saturday.

We will have regular updates on-air and online throughout the day Saturday.

And then our live team coverage schedule is set for Sunday and Monday, from first flakes to final flakes.

Whether you listen on the radio, listen live on the web, or follow along on our free mobile app, thank you for depending on our coverage to keep you up-to-date on what's going on around the great Garden State.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.