Storm systems line up aiming for NJ, as temperatures stay seasonably mild

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For the latest storm forecast information, please refer to my newest weather blog post.

As many New Jerseyans head back to work and back to school after the extended holiday weekend, we should be treated to a fairly nice February Tuesday day, although sunshine will be limited. A few sprinkles and flurries have passed through North Jersey early this morning, then the rest of the day will be dry. Highs will at least come close to 50 degrees. Our next storm system rolls in Wednesday, and it is going to be a wet one — not wintry at all. Occasional rain showers are expected across the state, especially early and late in the day. Nothing heavy though, with rainfall totals less than a quarter-inch. Thursday dries out again, before a batch of steadier rain arrives on Friday. High temperatures throughout the week will be mainly in the 40s, with a few 50s around South Jersey.

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Tuesday NJ weather: Near 50 degrees

Given how frigid and tumultuous this winter has been, the bar for weather we will consider "pleasant" is pretty low at this point. Frankly, anything that contributes to melting the snow and ice that is still on the ground after 23 days is fine in my book!

Tuesday morning is starting seasonably chilly. It is a "see your breath" and grab a coat kind of February morning, with temperatures in the 30s. High temperatures will reach about 45 to 50 degrees. Just above normal for this time of year, and about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Monday. Good stuff.

Clouds will generally win the sky, although you should see good breaks of sunshine along the way. Aside from some early morning sprinkles and flurries around the northern part of the state, we should stay dry. Winds will be light, up to about 15 mph.

Tuesday evening will stay quiet, although conditions will go downhill overnight. Between Midnight and daybreak Wednesday, fog and drizzle will likely develop. Visibility may get pretty low by the morning commute. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the mid 30s — staying above the freezing mark.

Wednesday NJ weather: Occasional rain showers

On Wednesday, we will get wet. Eh, "damp" is a better word. We really need rain, for two good reasons: 1.) The first half of February was incredibly dry, spiralling drought concerns again, and 2.) Rain is an especially effective snow/ice melter.

I think we will see two waves of spotty to scattered rain showers come through New Jersey. One in the morning, and another between late afternoon and early evening. So it is not going to rain all day.

And it is not going to pour — rainfall totals will stay less than a quarter-inch. North Jersey will be wetter than South Jersey.

Amid the raindrops, it will be cloudy and raw and just plain blah. High temperatures will range from around 40 degrees (north) to 50 degrees (south).

Thursday NJ weather: Drying out, lots of clouds

Thursday, we flip back to dry weather. Although clouds will hang on, preventing me from truly calling it a "nice" day.

Again, highs will reach the 40s. Maybe some 50s to the southwest, as warm air tries to invade once again. An isolated shower is possible late-day.

Friday NJ weather: Even steadier rain

Another impulse will ride through New Jersey's atmosphere on Friday. This one looks even stronger and even wetter, leading to about a half-inch of steady rainfall statewide. Good news, even more drought relief and even more snow melt.

Friday morning, temperatures may be cold enough in North Jersey — along and north of Interstate 78 — for a quick hit of wintry mix at onset. I think temperatures will warm up quickly enough that accumulations and travel impacts will be a non-issue, but it is something to be aware of.

Once again, despite the soggy, gloomy weather, temperatures will hold firm in the 40s and 50s. It's predominantly wet, not wintry.

Weekend NJ weather: We'll see

With two systems in the way, it is already difficult to get a good read on the long-range forecast. And models are struggling with a potential storm system in the Sunday time frame.

The GFS in particular really wants to pump heavy snow into part of New Jersey centered on the Sunday time frame. Other international models agree. But notably, the European model does not — it now shows a storm forming south of New Jersey this weekend, but not phasing and developing until over the ocean. Generally at this resolution, we look to ensemble models for hints at what could develop — they hint at the possibility of snow, but confirm this is not a slam dunk case.

What does this mean? High chance of hype, but low confidence in the forecast.

You know, back in the good ol' days, before the scourge of social media, I wouldn't have to play "meteorological defense" about a winter storm 5 or 6 days away. Yes, there is the opportunity for significant snow this weekend into early next week. But it is a highly uncertain forecast at this point. I offer my usual cautionary tale: Ignore the hype, give it another day or two, and we will let you know if you need to stock up on the bread and milk this time around.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.