Don’t underestimate how wet and windy NJ is going to get on Friday

One more quiet, fairly mild day before an active day of changing weather. Thursday begins where Wednesday left off, with sunshine and comfortable temperatures. We'll see mostly sunny skies until about mid-afternoon, when clouds slide in. High temperatures will reach about 50 degrees. Fog develops after sunset, and then rain arrives around Midnight. That rain will get heavier by daybreak Friday, leading to a wet and stormy commute. There could be some gusty winds and rumbles of thunder. The rain will also cause a ton of snowmelt, raising the risk of big puddles and ponding issues. Once the rain ends around midday, a gusty wind will kick up. And temperatures will tumble from the 50s to the 30s through the afternoon. We're right back to the chilly side to start the weekend.

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Thursday NJ weather: Still quiet and dry

Yes, we have some active, temperamental weather to talk about. But not Thursday. This will be another pleasant mid-December day, with no issues whatsoever during the daytime hours.

Thursday morning is seasonably chilly — not absurdly frigid like earlier this week. Temperatures are mainly starting in the 20s and 30s.

Highs should reach about 50 degrees Thursday afternoon, aided by sunshine and a light southwesterly breeze. Clouds will start to increase a bit by mid-afternoon. But again, we stay dry during the day.

Once sunset passes (4:35 p.m.), temperatures will dip a few degrees into the upper 40s. Because dew points will be on the rise, that little dip could be just enough to trigger some locally dense fog through Thursday evening.

The rain timeline has slid slightly later, with most of New Jersey likely staying rain-free until after Midnight.

Friday NJ weather: From wet to windy, from warm to not

Friday morning, we are going to get soaked. Moderate to heavy rain is likely statewide throughout the early rush hour. Rumbles of thunder and gusty winds are possible too. There will be big puddles and ponding issues. It is going to be a soggy, stormy morning for sure.

One more important factor to keep in mind. Heavy rain is a "snow cover killer" — we are going to see massive melt Friday morning. That will contribute to even bigger puddles around the state. Also, keep in mind, what doesn't melt away and wash away is going to become a compacted sheet of ice once temperatures drop below freezing again Friday night.

Rain will end around midday on Friday — final raindrops will probably exit the state around Noon or 1 p.m.

And then a strong cold front will slide through New Jersey.

While the first half of Friday (the rainy half) will be quite mild, in the mid to upper 50s, temperatures will take a big tumble in the afternoon. Many thermometers could end up in the upper 30s by sunset, a full 20 degrees colder.

Both the thunderstorms in the morning and the frontal passage in the afternoon could produce wind gusts of 40 to 50+ mph. That is enough to bring down trees and branches, cause driving difficulties, and spark scattered power outages.

So ... Rain, wind, cooldown. You will need both an umbrella and a jacket Friday. What a volatile, tumultuous, active weather day.

Saturday NJ weather: Back to the chilly side

Our weather will settle down for the weekend, as temperatures chill out again.

Saturday will feature a mix of sun and clouds and a stiff breeze. High temperatures will only reach the upper 30s. Back to below normal.

Sunday NJ weather: The nicer weekend day

Sunday will be brighter and more seasonable, with mostly sunny skies and highs reaching the mid 40s. Another day that will fall into the "pleasant mid-December weather" category.

Early next week probably scales back to around 40 degrees, give or take. Model guidance still shows a few waves worth watching for next week, one just before and one just after Christmas. Each would be capable of producing a little bit of wintry (or wet) weather. Still too early for details at this time.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.