No more wicked wind, but only a slight warmup this week for NJ

In case you didn't notice, it was rather cold and windy this weekend. Top wind gust on Saturday was 62 mph, with wind chills Saturday night down to about -20 degrees — ridiculous! Monday will be much better, as temperatures trend 10 degrees warmer and the wind calms down significantly too. Having said that, it will still be quite cold - below freezing all day - with mainly single digit temperatures in the morning and then highs in the mid 20s later on. We will warm into the 30s for Tuesday and Wednesday, with a shot at some 40s in South Jersey. There could be some spotty wintry mix that causes some slippery spots, but little to no accumulation worries there. The second half of the week trends chilly but quiet. Our next shot for a big storm will be next weekend - the Valentine's/Presidents' Day Weekend - but the jury is still out over hit vs. miss and wet vs. wintry.

Get our free mobile app

Monday NJ weather: Better, but still cold

Monday marks an important transition from "dangerous cold" back to "regular cold". Still not seasonable, still not ideal. The operative word here is "better".

Temperatures are starting mainly in the single digits Monday morning. Highs will only reach the mid 20s Monday afternoon. Yes, another day stuck below freezing. But with lighter winds, it will be more comfortable and more bearable than this weekend.

This will be the 24th of the last 25 days with colder than normal temperatures. I'm over it — a sentiment I am sure is shared by many New Jerseyans at this point.

Sunshine will win the sky through most of Monday, before clouds fill in starting mid-afternoon. A breeze will be noticeable, but not too strong, up to about 15 mph. And the day will be completely dry.

Monday night will be quiet and cold, with lows in the teens.

Tuesday NJ weather: Slightly warmer, spotty showers

Tuesday turns cloudy. But the warming trend continues, with highs pushing into the mid 30s. Above freezing!

The big thing to watch on Tuesday will be a weak frontal boundary arriving late-day, around the evening hours. That will drive a line of spotty showers through New Jersey, from northwest to southeast. Don't expect much here, but a bit of wintry mix of possible — some snowflakes and (more likely) some raindrops. Given those daytime temperatures just above the freezing mark I am particularly concerned about some freezing drizzle, which would lead to slippery spots into Tuesday night. I will also say a dusting or coating of snow is a possibility too, especially in North Jersey.

Wednesday NJ weather: One more mild-ish day

Behind Tuesday night's front, cold air will be very slow to arrive. So we should still squeak out one more OK day on Wednesday.

Under partly sunny skies, Wednesday's high temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. It will be nice to see a few 40s on the temperature map for the first time in about three weeks. But they will not be widespread. And that is still notably below normal for mid-February.

A few flurries or sprinkles can not be ruled out during the day Wednesday.

Thursday NJ weather: Back to the chilly side

Thursday turns a few degrees chillier, as highs descend to the lower 30s again with a stiff breeze. Skies will be mostly sunny and weather will be dry.

Friday looks similar, with sunshine and 30s.

And then the Valentine's Day-President's Day Weekend could get interesting. Long-range forecast models show a storm system developing at least in the vicinity of New Jersey. But will it be a hit or a miss? And if it does come close enough to produce weather impacts, will it be wet or will it be wintry? All very good questions that can not be answered at this time.

I have seen model solutions ranging from 2 inches of rain to double-digit snowfall to nothing at all for next weekend. That means we are in "hold your horses" territory. We have to wait another day or two for this thing to play out a little more, before making a more educated guess about how it may play out here.

Personally, I would love to see a good soaking rain here next weekend. Yes, it would come with some significant flash flooding and river flooding concerns. But to melt the stagnant snow and ice and "push the reset button" heading into the last month of winter would be wonderful.

Let's how things develop over the next 48 hours or so. If there is a trigger to pull on heavy rain or heavy snow, I promise you will be among the first to know.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.