An inch of snow leads into a weekend of dangerous wind chills for NJ

This is not going to be a nice weekend. At all. Cold and windy, with a little bit of snow to kick things off. An Extreme Cold Warning has been issued for the entire state, and a High Wind Warning is posted for southern and coastal counties — those are just as dramatic as they sound. You will notice a "red alert" icon on my 5 Day Forecast, which I reserve for the 5 to 10 worst weather days of the year when conditions are truly dangerous and people need to change or cancel their plans accordingly. Dangerous cold continues Sunday. Early next week trends slightly warmer and slightly better.

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Saturday: Very windy and very cold

Right around sunrise Saturday, a strong cold front will begin pushing west to east across New Jersey. This is the leading edge of a very cold, arctic air mass. And the beginning of quite the wintry weekend.

You will know immediately when the front arrives, as the wind kicks up dramatically. Gusts out of the northwest could hit 40 or 50+ mph throughout the day.

Meanwhile, temperatures will continue to plummet throughout the day, dropping from the 20s in the morning to around 10 degrees (give or take) by sunset.

That is cold. But it's not that cold. It's been colder numerous times already this season.

The problem is the combination of the intense wind and the intense cold, all at the same time. The wind chill will push below zero very quickly Saturday, likely bottoming out in the minus teens (around -15 degrees) by Saturday night. That's really cold — probably the lowest the wind chill has been here in New Jersey in several years.

This degree of cold is dangerous to human health, because the cold wind literally drives away body heat, limiting the body's ability to maintain temperature. Frostbite and hypothermia can occur within 15 to 30 minutes in such conditions without proper protection.

A High Wind Warning has been issued for 8 a.m. to 9 p.m. Saturday for Ocean, southeastern Burlington, Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland, and Salem counties. This cautions that wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible. The worst-case scenario here would be power outages, making the extreme cold even more perilous and uncomfortable.

A Wind Advisory covers the rest of the state for Saturday, with 40 to 50 mph top wind gusts in the forecast.

Meanwhile, an Extreme Cold Warning is posted for all 21 counties of New Jersey from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. This is issued when the wind chill is forecast to drop below -10 degrees, indicating a danger to human life. This is not normal wintertime cold here in New Jersey — you have to take it seriously.

There are also alerts posted for rough surf and freezing spray at the Jersey Shore throughout this weekend.

Nasty business, all around.

Sunday: Dangerous cold continues

By Sunday morning, thermometers will likely be in the single digits across the entire state, with wind chills at or below -10.

Sunday will benefit from somewhat lighter winds, probably gusting to "only" 30 mph. But it will still be quite cold, with high temperatures only reaching the mid teens in the afternoon. So the wind chill throughout the day will range from -15 to about +5 degrees. Still in the danger zone, still not much improvement.

Weather conditions on Sunday should otherwise be sunny and dry.

Monday: Better, calmer, still cold

Calmer winds and 20s should prevail on Monday, as we emerge from our dangerous trek to the arctic. Both Monday and Tuesday will remain unseasonably cold, but certainly better than the weekend.

Beyond that, the forecast gets muddy. I had been hoping for a nice warmup, with potential rain arriving late week. But the latest guidance has all but erased that warming trend, now erasing it with a messy midweek storm system that could produce a mix of accumulating snow (north) and steady rain (south). Such a forecast would be very complicated — so I am not touching it with a ten foot pole until after this weekend plays itself out.

I still believe a trend toward at least occasional warmth will happen around February's midpoint, which is now a week away. Hopefully that holds true — I am sick of the cold, and I really would like to see grass again sometime soon.

Be safe this weekend, folks. Think warm thoughts.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.