NJ weather: ‘Old Man Winter’ takes a nap this week
The Bottom Line
Quiet weather and a warming trend, in New Jersey, in the middle of February? Yes, please!
No, it does not mean that winter is over — just on pause for a few days.
Temperatures will progress from near-normal on Tuesday to decidedly above-normal for Wednesday and Thursday. Thermometers will then ping-pong a bit through the weekend, ultimately ending up back in the freezer by early next week.
Meanwhile, there are no significant storm systems in the forecast. (In other words, this is the calmest, easiest weather forecast we've had in a while!)
Radar is all clear, following some soaking rain overnight. We are left with damp, raw conditions. Wet roads, mist, and fog. There are some pockets of visibility down to a quarter-mile, which may get in your way early Tuesday morning.
I think it's fair to call Tuesday a pleasant February day. High temperatures should reach the lower 40s by the afternoon. That's seasonable, typical for this time of year. We'll see lots of sunshine to start the day, with fair-weather clouds mixing in for the afternoon. It will be breezy too, blowing out of the west up to 20 mph.
Perfect radiative cooling conditions look to set up for Tuesday night — that is clear skies, calm winds, and dry air. It will be a freeze for practically everyone in the Garden State, with lows in the mid 20s. (Also seasonable, by the way.)
Despite the chilly start, you'll really start to feel the warmup Wednesday afternoon. Highs push to around 50 degrees, give or take. With bright, sunny skies, light winds, and dry weather, it should be a very nice day.
Also mild. Some models push an isolated shower into North Jersey on Thursday, but it's not a 100% sure bet. Other than that, the stretch of pleasant weather will continue. Look for partly sunny skies and high temps in the lower 50s.
Gasp, it's a cold front day. However, our new air mass will arrive with little fanfare. And that new air mass won't be much different than the old one.
Temperatures on Friday will take a small steep backward, topping out in the mid 40s. That's still slightly above-normal for this time of year. And skies will remain clear and dry.
The Weekend & Beyond
We've had so many weekends lately with non-stop winter storm threats and/or extreme cold. I'm happy to report that the upcoming weekend will break that trend. (Well, on Saturday, at least.)
Saturday reads like a taste of Spring. Temperatures will surge well into the 50s. And I'll even say that 60 degrees is a possibility in South Jersey. Clouds will increase steadily through the afternoon. And a batch of rain could make for a wet end to the day.
By Sunday, arctic air will be back. Highs mainly in the 30s. Mostly cloudy skies. Blustery, with a stiff northerly breeze.
Monday looks even colder, with highs barely above-freezing. (Told you winter wasn't quite done yet.)
We had been watching a potential coastal storm in the Sunday-Monday time frame. It's still showing up on model guidance, but the storm track has shifted south and east — away from New Jersey. So we'll call it a "miss" for now. But it's still worth watching to see how things develop.
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.